Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 34
The Political Scene (23 August 2004)
The standoff in Najaf between the Iraqi government and the followers of Shi'a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has entered its third week. A conference in Baghdad has nominated a 100-member interim national assembly. There is speculation that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon may call early elections after his proposal to form a coalition with the opposition Labour party was voted down by his own Likud party.
Najaf Confrontation Drags On
The confrontation in Najaf between the Mahdi Army militia of Muqtada al-Sadr and the government of Prime Minister Ayad ΄Allawi has dragged on into a third week, and despite threats from the government side of imminent and decisive military action, there was no guarantee at the end of the week that the crisis was about to be resolved either peacefully or by force. Dr ΄Allawi on 15 August voiced support for a peaceful solution, but added that “for us to achieve that, the militia must disarm with no preconditions, they must leave Najaf and the Imam ΄Ali shrine and enter the political process.” On the same day an Interior Ministry spokesman warned that “a major assault by forces will be launched quickly to bring the Najaf fight to an end. This matter has to be brought to conclusion as fast as possible and we want to bring the situation to normalcy soon.” On 17 August Mr Sadr refused to meet an eight-member delegation from the national conference in Baghdad (see below) because of “American aggression,” prompting Defense Minister Hazim al-Sha'lan to declare the next day that “today will witness a decisive battle against Sadr followers” that would “crush the Mahdi Army and force them out of the city…the Iraqi forces will be the ones in charge of the operation.” Mr Sha΄lan subsequently repeated that “the coming hours will be decisive,” adding that “the Mahdi Army should be dissolved and Muqtada al-Sadr brought before the prime minister, who is the one to decide what Muqtada al-Sadr’s fate should be.” In the meantime, Mr Sadr had apparently accepted the proposals put forward by the Baghdad delegation, since his spokesman said on 19 August that “we are surprised by the declaration and threat by the minister of defense…because we have given our full accord to the initiative presented by the delegation.” On the same day Minister of State Kasim Dawud turned up the volume by declaring that “the Iraqi government has laid down conditions that Muqtada al-Sadr must promise in a press conference not to resort to violence in the future and that the Mahdi Army is to be dissolved.” Mr Dawud also said that Mr Sadr must also submit the names of everyone tried by his religious courts and release all detainees. “All this should be declared in a press conference, otherwise the coming hours will be decisive…We have been preparing for a military offensive for five days to put an end to this crisis.” Dr ΄Allawi also weighed in again, saying “we will categorically not allow armed militias. This is the final call to them to disarm, vacate the holy shrine and engage in political work…We have only heard from people who work with him, we haven’t heard from him directly and we would like to hear from him his final position before we move to the next stage.” Mr Sadr’s somewhat ambiguous answer was a letter to “my dear brothers inside the shrine of Imam ΄Ali” saying that “everyone knows this army is the foundation of the Imam Mahdi and I do not have the right to dissolve it,” but urging his fighters “to deliver the keys of the shrine to the Maya'iya” – the Shi'a religious authorities – “as soon as possible to prevent the infidel from entering this holy place.”
An Interim Assembly
The crisis in Najaf overshadowed a 1,300-member conference that convened in Baghdad on 15 August to choose an interim National Assembly to monitor the government until elections are held early next year. After a certain amount of predictable infighting – there are currently some 70-80 political partiers in Iraq – the conference eventually adopted the 100-member list put forward by the government on 18 August. In the new assembly 19 seats are reserved for the members of the former Iraqi Governing Council, 21 go to party members (spanning the political spectrum from royalists to communists), 21 to provincial leaders, 11 to minorities, 10 to tribal leaders, 10 to civil society organizations and eight to independents. The assembly will have the power to veto legislation by a two-thirds majority, to approve the 2005 budget and to appoint a new president or prime minister should either resign or die in office. And while its powers are limited and its duration transitory (always assuming elections are held on schedule), the fact that the Iraqis have been able to agree on a reasonably representative body must be counted as a modest victory for pluralism, if not democracy.
Likud Rejects Coalition With Labour
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s plans to disengage unilaterally from Gaza and part of the West Bank suffered a setback on 18 August when his own Likud party’s Central Committee voted 58% against his proposal to form a coalition with the opposition Labour party. Despite this defeat Mr Sharon said he would persevere with both his disengagement plan and his attempt to put together a stable coalition government to carry it through. However, Labour leader Shimon Peres said on 19 August that “we cannot entrust the fate of Israel” to 800-900 Likud hardliners “when we see that a majority of the country unequivocally support disengagement” and that “therefore the opinion of the Labour party today is to call for new elections and allow the people to decide.”
Charles Snow