Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 33
16
The Political Scene (16 August 2004)
Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad ΄Allawi – with the help of the US army – has embarked on what looks like a showdown with Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi army militia in Najaf, a high-stakes confrontation fraught with consequences for the country’s (and Dr ΄Allawi’s) future. Relations between Baghdad and Tehran have been further strained by the insurgency in the south as Iraqi officials repeat and amplify accusations of Iranian intervention. A judge in Baghdad has issued a warrant for the arrest of Iraqi National Congress leader Ahmad Chalabi and his nephew. It is open to question whether the Saudi authorities have given women the right to vote in the forthcoming municipal elections.
Showdown In Najaf
The political unrest in southern Iraq which erupted into open conflict between coalition forces and the Mahdi militia of Muqtada al-Sadr in Najaf on 4 August swiftly developed into a crucial trial of strength for Iraq’s interim government as fighting spread to Kut, ΄Amara, Diwaniya and Basra. As MEES went to press on 13 August. the outcome of the battle was still uncertain, but what was at stake was not: Prime Minister Ayad ΄Allawi had clearly decided that the Falluja solution was no longer an option and the time had come for the government to assert its authority. From Dr ΄Allawi’s point of view this is entirely understandable, since he must restore security or fail, and that means reining in the militias which filled the vacuum left by the removal of the Saddam regime (and the Americans’ ill-judged decision to disband the Iraqi army). The problem is that he must rely on coalition (and more specifically US) forces to do so – and clearly a great deal hinges on whether he succeeds or not. At the end of the week, US forces had launched what appeared to be a final assault on Mahdi army positions in Najaf and Mr Sadr had reportedly been wounded, prompting the deputy governor of Najaf, Jawdat al-Kuraishi, to resign on 12 August, saying that “I resign from my post denouncing all the US terrorist operations that they are doing against this holy city.” On the same day Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi denounced US military operations in Najaf as “inhumane and horrible… the US invaders have proven they are not abiding by any ethical principles and their recent atrocities are unjustifiable.” However, Iraq’s supreme Shi΄a religious authority, Ayatollah ΄Ali al-Sistani, ostentatiously failed to blame Dr Allawi or the Americans for the fighting when his spokesman said on 12 August that the ayatollah “is pained and very sad about what is happening in holy Najaf. We call for the holy soil and holy sites of this city to be respected.”
Relations With Iran Sour
As Mr Asefi’s remarks suggest, the insurgency on the south has accelerated the deterioration of relations between Iraq and Iran which came into the open some three weeks ago when Iraqi Defense Minister Hazim Sha'lan on 25 July described Iran as “the first enemy of Iraq” and accused the Iranians, inter alia, of taking over border positions and sending spies and saboteurs into Iraq. On 8 August Mr Asefi said that Iran wanted to hear from Dr Allawi “that what the Iraqi defense minister has said has been manipulated and it was not like that. We are hopeful that in the future we will not witness such irresponsible comments. Iraq should not be the place for crisis building.” He also dismissed out of hand a call by Mr Sha΄lan for the immediate return of Iraqi aircraft flown to Iran during the 1991 Gulf war, saying that “we will discuss these issues with the coming elected government officials, and not with the interim government.”
On the same day a group calling itself the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI) announced it had “detained” an Iranian diplomat who, according to the Iranian charge d’affaires in Baghdad, was traveling to Karbala to open a consulate there. The IAI accused Iran of “blatant interference in Iraqi internal affairs,” a charge that appeared to be substantiated when Iraqi sources asserted that the Iranians had neither sought, nor been given, permission to open a consulate in the city. And on 9 August Mr Sha΄lan accused Iran directly of fomenting the unrest in Najaf, telling al-Arabiya TV that “Iran has left another fingerprint in Najaf and there are weapons that are manufactured in Iran that have been found in Najaf in the hands of the criminals who got these weapons via the border with Iran.” Asked if he still regarded Iran as the enemy, he replied: “The facts we have say that what has happened to the people of Iraq happened from a number one enemy.” Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani replied on 10 August that there is “no logical reason or proof that would verify” Mr Sha΄lan’s claims and that “such comments show that the Iraqi defense minister is either inexperienced or he is trying to mimic American and Israeli officials.”
Warrant For Chalabi’s Arrest
Iraq’s domestic political confusion was further compounded on 7 August when Judge Zuhair al-Maliki issued a warrant for the arrest of Iraqi National Congress (INC) head Ahmad Chalabi on a charge of counterfeiting money and for the arrest of his nephew Salem Chalabi, the administrative head of the tribunal trying Saddam Husain, in connection with the murder last April of finance ministry director general Haitham Fadel. The next day, Mr Chalabi senior issued a statement in Tehran (where he was visiting) describing the charges as “false and outrageous” and Mr Maliki as “not a bona fide Iraqi judge but an unqualified person who was put in his position by the American occupation authorities.” (Considering that Mr Chalabi, formerly the Pentagon’s favorite Iraqi exile, was installed in Nasiriya by the US army as the invasion of Iraq proceeded, this looks like a bad case of the pot calling the kettle black.) He followed this up on 9 August by denouncing his former patrons when he claimed that the CIA was involved “to a considerable extent,” adding that “this is a classic situation, they have done it in South America… it is not a domestic issue. The Americans create structures in the judiciary and special units in the police and security which are ostensibly part of the government of Iraq which have covert channels to the Americans who direct them to do their bidding.” Mr Chalabi’s suspicion that he is the target of some kind of conspiracy can only have been reinforced on 10 August when the Interior Ministry gave the INC 24 hours to evacuate its headquarters in Baghdad (even if ministry spokesman Gurgis Sada insisted that other parties that had taken over government property after the US invasion would be similarly evicted.) However, it was far from clear at the end of the week whether anything more would be heard of the whole affair, since according to INC official Mithal al-Alusi, after his return to Baghdad on 11 August Mr Chalabi was informed that the charges against him “have been postponed.”
Municipal Elections In Saudi Arabia
In a move which is a landmark of sorts, the Saudi Ministry of Municipal Affairs on 9 August announced the regulations for the kingdom’s first ever exercise in democracy, the municipal elections which are due to take place from November onwards. Moreover, since these state that “every citizen has the right to vote if… over 21 years old, not a military man and resident in the constituency for a year before the day of the ballot,” it is generally believed (though still not absolutely certain) that the franchise also extends to women. However, lest anyone think that the kingdom is about to career at breakneck speed down the untravelled road to political reform, on the same day a court in Riyadh formally charged three prominent Saudi reformists with “criticizing the political establishment” through (inter alia) “calling for adopting a constitutional monarchy and using western terminology.” Such, apparently, is the stuff of which dangerous radicals are made in Saudi Arabia.
Charles Snow