Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 30
26
The Political Scene (26 July 2004)
Palestinian leader Yasir ‘Arafat is facing an intifada of his own, as well as international pressure to reform his autocratic method of government. France and Israel are at odds over Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s call for French Jews to emigrate. The UN General Assembly has overwhelmingly endorsed the World Court’s view that Israel’s “separation barrier” is illegal. And the US is trying to persuade the Security Council to threaten the Sudanese government with sanctions.
΄Arafat Under Pressure At Home
The Israelis and the Americans have been trying to sideline Palestinian Authority (PA) President Yasir ΄Arafat for the last year or so, without much visible success. Indeed, it might be argued that this campaign is counterproductive in that it only reinforces his credibility with the Palestinian street. But now it appears that the veteran Palestinian leader is facing a more dangerous challenge to his authority from within, as members of his own Fatah movement have launched violent protests in Gaza against the PA’s failure to root out corruption, reform the security services and share power. (Palestinian analysts also attribute the intifada against Mr ΄Arafat to younger Fatah militants jockeying for position with the old guard ahead of any potential Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.) The protests began on 16 July when the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, itself an offshoot of Fatah, abducted Gaza police chief Ghazi Jabali and accused him of corruption, prompting Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmad Qurai΄ to submit his resignation to Mr ΄Arafat the next day, saying “this is a true disaster. This is a level of chaos we have never seen before.” In reply, Mr ΄Arafat rejected the resignation and sacked both Mr Jabali and General Security Service (GSS) chief ΄Abd al-Razik al Majaida, replacing the latter with his own cousin Musa ΄Arafat, who is widely seen as corrupt. In reply dissident Fatah members seized and looted a GSS base in southern Gaza as violent demonstrations erupted elsewhere, forcing Mr ΄Arafat to reinstate Gen Majaida as overall head of security in West Bank and Gaza above Musa ΄Arafat on 19 July. On the same day Mr Qurai΄ insisted that his resignation would go ahead, declaring “the time has come to reactivate our security apparatus. The time has come to put the appropriate men in the appropriate jobs.” However, the next day he said after meeting with Mr ΄Arafat that he would stay in office in a caretaker capacity, and his status was hardly clarified when the Palestinian parliament voted 43-4 in favor of a resolution calling on Mr ΄Arafat to accept his resignation and appoint a government capable of dealing with the anarchic situation in the occupied territories.
UN, EU And Egypt Turn the Screws
Compounding the pressure on Mr ΄Arafat has been some frank criticism from the UN and a veiled threat from the EU. Last week UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen reported to the Security Council that the Palestinian leader lacked the “political will” to introduce reforms, saying that “the Palestinian Authority… has made no progress on its core obligation to take immediate action… to end violence and combat terror, and to reform and reorganize the Palestinian Authority.” Moreover on 19 July UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said that “I made clear in my own statement that I supported Larsen’s statement, and he was stating the facts and I think events have borne him out.” Mr Annan went on to say that the Palestinians are facing “a serious crisis” and that “what is important is the actions that need to be taken on the ground to bring it under control and for the PA to take the steps necessary and to begin to reform, particularly bringing the security forces under one command.” Specifically “Chairman ΄Arafat should really take the time to listen to the prime minister and other members of his leadership, and take the necessary steps to…work with the Egyptians and Jordanians and the international community to reform his security apparatus.” And on 22 July EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, when asked if the EU would change its support for Mr ΄Arafat if Mr Qurai΄ resigned, replied that “if that happens we will have to rethink a lot of things.”
A similar message came from Egyptian presidential spokesman Magid ΄Abd al-Fatah on 21 July. Mr Fatah told reporters that “we have called for unifying the Palestinian security organs and for the prime minister to be given authority over those organs that is parallel to that of the PA president.” He added that “Egypt does not aim to isolate any body or give anybody more authority than the other,” but that “we want to see that the Palestinian prime minister has a role in supervising the security organs.”
Sharon Advises French Jews To Leave
France and Israel are in the middle of a blazing diplomatic row after Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon called on French Jews to emigrate to Israel because of growing anti-semitism in France. “If I have to advise our brothers in France, I’ll tell them one thing – move to Israel as early as possible,” Mr Sharon said on 18 July. “I say that to Jews all round the world, but there I think it’s a must and they have to move immediately.” The next day, French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier described these remarks as “unacceptable and intolerable,” while President Jacques Chirac issued a statement demanding an explanation of them, adding that France “has let it be known that from today an eventual visit by the Israeli prime minister to Paris, for which no date had been set, would not be considered until such an explanation is forthcoming.” On 20 July Israeli government spokesman Avi Pazner tried to smooth things over by saying that “there is no crisis between the two countries but rather a cultural misunderstanding which we must try hard from now on to dispel and give ourselves time for reflection. For us, the prime minister’s appeal to Jews throughout the world, and not only France, is one of the fundamental ideologies of the state of Israel, while the French have seen it as something else.” However, on the same day Mr Barnier said that “as I speak, we have received no reply to our request for an explanation,” adding that “there is a very serious misunderstanding.”
South Pacific At The UN
With one exception, the list of the states that voted against the resolution adopted on 20 July by the UN General Assembly (by 150 votes to 6, with 10 abstentions) calling on Israel to comply with the 9 July advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) declaring Israel’s “separation barrier” in the occupied territories illegal speaks for itself. The exception is Australia, which, for reasons that can only be guessed at, joined the US, Israel, the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia and Palau in lonely opposition to the resolution. However, the fact that the overwhelming majority of the international community – including the EU – agrees with the ICJ makes no practical difference on the ground. General Assembly resolutions are not enforceable, and, as an adviser to Mr Sharon, Raanan Gissin, put it on 21 July, “the building of the fence will go on. Israel will not stop building it or abdicate its inalienable right to self-defense.”
US Seeks UN Resolution On Darfur
In their last act before adjourning for a six-week summer recess, the US Senate and House of Representatives on 22 July passed a resolution formally declaring that “the atrocities unfolding in Darfur, Sudan, are genocide” and urging President Bush to seek a UN resolution to impose sanctions on those responsible, authorize a multinational force to protect displaced persons and humanitarian workers, create a commission to investigate crimes and initiate a process to resolve differences between Darfurians and the Sudanese government. On the same day the US also submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council calling for an immediate arms embargo on weapons for the Janjaweed – the Arab militias allegedly terrorizing civilians in Darfur in western Sudan – and threatening unspecified sanctions against the Sudanese government if it does not “bring to justice Janjaweed leaders and their associates.” According to deputy US ambassador Stuart Holliday, “the resolution demands that Sudan apprehend Janjaweed leaders and bring them to justice. In 30 days, if there is no compliance, the council will look to take action, including the imposition of sanctions.” However, reports from New York indicate that the Americans may not get their way in the Security Council, as several members, including Russia, China and Pakistan, are opposed to the idea of threatening the government in Khartum with sanctions.
Charles Snow