Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 28
The Political Scene (12 July 2004)
Iraq’s transitional government has passed a security law conferring authoritarian powers on the prime minister. Turkey has warned that it sees the ethnically divided northern city of Kirkuk as a potential domestic and regional flashpoint.
Transitional Government Passes Security Law
It is something of an irony that the first act of a government that is supposed to oversee Iraq’s transition to democracy has been to pass a law conferring autocratic powers on Prime Minister Ayad 'Allawi. But that is what Iraq’s transitional government did on 7 July when it unanimously approved the National Security Law giving the prime minister sweeping powers to combat insurgency, including the right to declare a state of emergency in “any area of Iraq where people face a threat to the lives of its citizens because of some people’s permanent violent campaign to prevent the creation of a government that represents all Iraqis.” The law also empowers him (inter alia) to impose nationwide curfews, appoint military governors to take charge of cities or provinces, close the country’s borders, ban political groups and seize the assets of suspects and monitor their communications. Clearly these are powers that could be abused to suppress dissent, but the law also contains a number of safeguards. Mr 'Allawi can only assume these special powers with the unanimous approval of the three-man presidency (comprising a Sunni president and Kurdish and Shi΄a deputy presidents). The areas covered by a state of emergency must be clearly defined and the state of emergency may only last for 60 days, subject to renewal for a further 30 days at a time. And the law states specifically that its provisions cannot be used to delay the national elections that are due to take place in January or to abrogate the Transitional Administrative Law (or interim constitution) adopted in March. Critics of the American occupation of Iraq (and of the transitional government) have been quick to point out that the new law appears to be a step in the wrong direction as far as democracy is concerned. But the government would be justified in replying that it is virtually self-evident that no elections can be held until the security situation is brought under control and that Draconian measures are necessary and justified to do so.
A Warning From Turkey
To many observers the northern city of Kirkuk has all the qualifications to become the major flashpoint as Iraq struggles to reinvent itself politically and socially: it controls Iraq’s northern oilfields; it is close to Turkey; and it is claimed by three ethnic groups, Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen (the latter culturally and linguistically linked to Turkey). And the Turks are clearly amongst those who see trouble brewing in the city, at least if the deputy head of the Turkish army’s general staff, Gen Ilker Basbug, is to be believed. Gen Basbug, at a press briefing on 8 July, warned the Kurds indirectly (but clearly) against trying to change the demography of Kirkuk, which the Kurds claim was Arabised during Saddam Husain’s rule, saying that “some ethnic groups are pursuing efforts to change the demographic structure of Kirkuk while steps are being taken to bring stability to Iraq. We expect the interim government of Iraq to prevent that.” According to the general, a failure to find a “just and lasting solution” to the status of the city would threaten Iraq’s territorial and political integrity, and “such a development would be seen as a serious security concern for Turkey.” He went on to suggest the best option would be for Kirkuk to be placed directly under the authority of Baghdad rather than any regional government, adding : “it is true that this issue is an internal affair of Iraq, but this region carries the greatest risk regarding the future of Iraq. We are concerned that wrong steps may plunge Iraq into internal strife…and therefore it is out of the question for us to stay outside this issue. We want the preservation of Iraq’s territorial integrity and political unity and we want that stability is established in Iraq as soon as possible.”
Charles Snow