Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 27
The Political Scene ( 5 July 2004)
The US has transferred sovereignty to Iraq’s interim government, a move which has met with a guarded reception regionally. The US has also opened a liaison office in Tripoli as relations with Libya improve.
Sovereignty Transferred
By all accounts, the transfer of sovereignty to Iraq on 28 June – two days early, for security reasons – was a low-key, almost furtive affair which took place behind closed doors inside the Americans’ compound in central Baghdad. US proconsul Paul Bremer handed legal documents to Iraqi interim Prime Minister Iyad 'Allawi and interim President Ghazi al-Yawar, Mr 'Allawi and Mr Yawar spoke briefly, and after the ceremony was over Mr Bremer departed from Iraq, to be replaced by US ambassador John Negroponte, who presented his credentials the next day. The Americans and Iraqis thus went through the motions of a real transfer of sovereignty, but it was doubtful whether there was anyone in the Arab world who would agree with President Bush’s description of the proceedings as “a proud, moral achievement for members of our coalition,” since they manifestly changed very little on the ground. First and foremost, there are still some 165,000 foreign troops in the country, whose relationship with the interim government is distinctly nuanced, and they and their contractors enjoy immunity from prosecution under Iraqi law. Secondly, prior to his departure Mr Bremer, according to the Washington Post, made sure the new “sovereign” dice are loaded in the Americans’ favor with a whole raft of appointments and “orders.” He has, for example, decreed that Mr 'Allawi’s national security adviser and national intelligence chief should serve five-year terms, meaning that Mr 'Allawi’s choices will be imposed on the government that is supposed to be elected early next year. He has also appointed inspectors-general in every ministry for a similar five-year term. As for his orders – defined as “binding instructions or directives to the Iraqi people” – they range from the outrageous to the ridiculous. (In the former category is an election law that gives a seven-member commission the power to disqualify political parties and any of the candidates they support. In the latter is a new traffic code that requires drivers to “hold the steering wheel with both hands.”) Moreover Mr Bremer has sought to make it difficult, if not impossible, for the interim government to rescind his edicts by adding an annex to the interim constitution that requires the approval of two thirds of the cabinet, Mr Yawar and his two interim vice presidents for the orders to be overturned. Admittedly, the interim government, being unelected, is supposed to keep legislation to a minimum. But the American attempt to restrict the interim government’s freedom of action will do little for Mr 'Allawi’s credibility with ordinary Iraqis as he tries to steer the country through an extraordinarily tricky transition. And it also raises the question of what the Americans might do if Mr 'Allawi chooses to exercise Iraqi sovereignty by modifying or repealing Mr Bremer’s orders regardless.
Regional Reactions Wary
Given the rather obvious limitations on the sovereignty being transferred, it was hardly surprising that regional reactions to the move were guarded. In the Gulf, the Kuwaitis were the most openly enthusiastic, with Prime Minister Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah declaring that “we are pleased with the transfer of power to the Iraqi people.” The Saudi cabinet was also “pleased about the transfer of power in Iraq so that Iraq may regain its sovereignty.” Qatar rather pointedly said that the transfer was “a necessary step towards sovereignty,” while the Gulf Cooperation Council issued a statement describing it as “a step on the right path to building a unified Iraq.” Elsewhere, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Mahir, when asked whether it was now time for the two countries to restore full relations, replied that “this is a subject which is not under discussion now.” Arab League Secretary General 'Amr Musa said that “all we want is…that the Iraqi government is able to exercise its sovereignty and authority in a way that acquires credibility,” while according to Syrian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Bushra Kanafani “Syria hopes the transfer of power to Iraqis will lead to the exercise of sovereignty in the whole territory.” In Iran, which has its own perspective on developments in Iraq, government spokesman Abdollah Ramazanzade said “we welcome any move that will give sovereignty back to the majority of the Iraqi people and ends the occupation of our neighbor.”
Outside the Middle East, however, it appeared that there was a greater inclination (not to say determination) to accept the transfer of sovereignty at face value. Most surprising of all were the French, whose Foreign Minister, Michel Barnier, said “the occupation came to an end yesterday, and the interim government, to which responsibility and full authority have been accorded to govern the country, takes office in a sovereign Iraq.” The UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, similarly welcomed “the state of Iraq back into the family of independent and sovereign nations.” And the EU’s executive body, the European Commission, issued a statement saying that “we hope that future generations of Iraqis will be able to look back at this day and see it as a moment when they were untied and began working together to overcome the legacy of decades of conflict and brutal authoritarian rule.”
US Restores Relations With Libya
For the record, the US and Libya have reestablished direct diplomatic relations after a 24-year break with the opening of a US liaison office in Tripoli by Assistant Secretary of State William Burns on 28 June. A statement issued by the office said that “Libya would be taking its own steps to establish diplomatic representation in the US” and that “both sides confirmed that these actions would assist the step-by-step process of strengthening relations as Libya fulfills each of its commitments and the US continues to respond in kind.”
Charles Snow