Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 26
The Political Scene (28 June 2004)
Violence in Iraq has intensified as the 30 June deadline for the transfer of sovereignty approaches. Radical Shi'a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has refused an invitation to attend a conference to select a national council.
Insurgents Step Up The Pressure: Sadr Turns Down Invitation
Bush administration officials who have been warning that the violence in Iraq will intensify rather than diminish as sovereignty is transferred to Iraqis at the end of the month appear for once to have got it right in Iraq. On 24 June coordinated attacks by insurgents in central and northern Iraq – in Falluja, Ramadi, Baquba, Mosul and Baghdad – killed over 80 people and wounded an estimated 320. They also resulted in American air strikes in Baquba and Falluja which will presumably further alienate the already disaffected populations there.
On the political front, it was announced on 20 June that Shi'a activist Muqtada al-Sadr has been invited to the July political conference, which is to select a national council to advise the interim government. (The council, which will serve until legislative elections are held in January, will inter alia have the power to question ministers on policy and veto legislation by a two-thirds majority.) However, one of Mr Sadr’s aides, Shaikh Ahmad Shaibani, told AFP on 23 June that Mr Sadr had decided against accepting the invitation on the grounds that the proposed conference is unrepresentative. “We reject the invitation,” he said. “We have examined the invitation over the past three days and reached the conclusion that it does not take into account enough the importance of our movement. It isn’t normal that they propose huge movements like our own be represented by one member alone like some delegates who represent no-one but themselves...We wanted the conference to truly represent the Iraqi people, its political movements and social composition.” Whether Mr Sadr’s objections represent a serious setback for the proposed conference is a question that was for the moment overshadowed by the mayhem on 24 June. But his refusal of the invitation is probably a foretaste of what promises to be a lively political summer in Iraq as the rest of the Middle East succumbs to its usual seasonal torpor.
Charles Snow