Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 25
The Political Scene (21 June 2004)
Rebel Shi'a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has ended his insurgency in Najaf and is threatening to go into politics. The Americans are reluctant to hand over former president Saddam Husain to Iraq’s government-in-waiting. US Secretary of State Colin Powell is concerned about the situation in Saudi Arabia as al-Qa'ida continues to target expatriates.
Sadr Changes Tack
After almost two weeks of intermittent skirmishes in Najaf and Kufa between coalition forces and Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army militia, it looks as if the cease-fire negotiated by Iraqi intermediaries on 4 June has finally gone into effect. Indeed, it appears that the anti-American Shi'a cleric has decided to end the insurgency he began in early April and instead turn his hand to more conventional political activity. A spokesman for Mr Sadr said on 13 June that “there is an intention to set up a party to participate in political matters,” while on 16 June Mr Sadr issued a statement in Najaf calling on his forces to return home, saying that “each of the individuals of the Mahdi Army, the loyalists who made sacrifices…should return to their governorates to do their duty.” Iraqi interim President Ghazi al-Yawar described these decisions as a “smart move” which could enable Mr Sadr to take part in mainstream politics, a view emphatically not shared by Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) spokesman Dan Senor, who said on 15 June that “there is an Iraqi arrest warrant issued against Muqtada al-Sadr that ties him to a brutal murder, and I don’t see how he would be eligible for political office before that matter is resolved.” However on the same day President Bush changed tack dramatically – bearing in mind that initially the Americans wanted Mr Sadr out of the equation, dead or alive – saying in effect that it was up to the Iraqis to decide what should be done about him: “The interim Iraqi government will deal with Sadr in the way they see fit. They’re sovereign. When we say we transfer full sovereignty, we mean we transfer full sovereignty. And they will deal with him appropriately.” This volte-face in Washington forced Mr Senor to beat a hasty retreat on 16 June, claiming that Mr Sadr “is seeking to save face…He has expressed his support for the interim government, which was unheard of many weeks ago.” Not that Mr Sadr appears to need to save much face. An opinion poll commissioned by the CPA last month and leaked on 16 June shows that he is second only to Ayatollah ‘Ali al-Sistani in popularity and enjoys the support of 67% of Iraqis.
Americans Reluctant To Hand Saddam Over
Iraq’s interim government in waiting has just had its first difference of opinion with the Americans, on the issue of who should be responsible for the custody of Saddam Husain, and (perhaps unsurprisingly) the Iraqis have come off second best. The minor contretemps began when prime minister designate Ayad 'Allawi told al-Jazira on 14 June that “the transfer of Saddam Husain and others (to Iraqi custody) will take place within two weeks.” This evoked a swift disclaimer from Mr Bush, who said the next day that “I just want to make sure that when sovereignty is transferred, Saddam Husain stays in jail. What we don’t want – and I know the Iraqi interim government doesn’t want – is there to be lax security, and for Saddam Husain somehow not to stand trial...We want to make sure that he doesn’t come back to power. And so therefore, it’s a legitimate question to ask of the interim government ‘How are you going to make sure he stays in jail?’ And that’s the question I’m asking. And when we get the right answer, which I’m confident we will – we’ll work with them to do so – then we’ll be satisfied.” Faced with this refusal, Iraqi interim president Ghazi al-Yawar had little choice but to concede the point, although on rather different grounds, saying on 15 June that “the US is very keen to hand over the ex-president to the Iraqi authorities. We must first make sure that we can maintain protection for his life until he goes on trial.”
Al-Qa'ida Keeps Up The Pressure
US Secretary of State Colin Powell has expressed concern about the situation in Saudi Arabia after al-Qa'ida continued its campaign against expatriates in the kingdom by killing one American in Riyadh and abducting another on 12 June. Mr Powell said the next day that “it’s not unraveling, but it’s certainly a dangerous situation. The Saudis know that this is an enemy that is coming after them…the Saudis now know that they have a very serious problem within the kingdom, and they know that it is going to require all their resources, not only their military and police resources,” adding that “clearly this is a dangerous time for Saudi Arabia and we’re working with them…in every way we can to defeat these terrorists.” Hearing such remarks from a member of the Bush administration, it is hard to believe that not so very long ago (less than 2 years, to be precise), Lawrence Murawiec of the Rand Corporation was invited to the Pentagon to tell policy makers that “the Saudis are active at every level of the terror chain, from planners to financiers, from cadre to foot soldier, from ideologist to cheerleader,” or that neoconservatives in the Pentagon were stopping barely short of calling openly for regime change in Riyadh. Perhaps now, with al-Qa'ida seeking to destabilize the kingdom, they will realize that regime change in Saudi Arabia might not be such a good idea after all.
Charles Snow