VOL. XLVII
No 20
The Political Scene (17 May 2004)
The peace is holding in Falluja, but the confrontation between coalition forces and Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Najaf is continuing. President Bush has acknowledged that the 2005 deadline in the international road map for the establishment of a Palestinian state is unlikely to be met. Mr Bush has also imposed sanctions on Syria, which is apparently an “extraordinary threat” to the US.
Stand Off Continues In Najaf
With Falluja pacified, at least for the moment, the Americans have been able to turn their attention to Shi΄a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s insurrection in the shrine cities of Kufa and Najaf south of Baghdad, where there were indications that Mr Sadr was losing support among the general population and the more moderate Shi΄a religious establishment. In a sermon on 7 May, a senior member of Iraq’s largest Shi΄a party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Shaikh Sadreddine Kubanji, urged Mr Sadr’s Mahdi Army militia to leave Najaf, saying “listen to the advice of the learned ones. You are our beloved youth and we care about you, but go back to your home where you came from and fight the occupation and the Ba΄thists there. The Najafis will be responsible for protecting Najaf.” On 11 May the Mahdi Army was forced to fire in the air to disperse a demonstration instigated by SCIRI calling for the militia to leave Najaf. On the same day Mr Sadr opened the door a crack to a negotiated resolution of the conflict in a statement saying that “I am ready to end everything if the occupation forces officially ask for negotiations, on condition that these negotiations are just and transparent and under the stewardship of the Shi΄a religious authorities,” and later in the day Mr Sadr’s chief aide in Najaf told Reuters that agreement had been reached among “all shades of the Shi΄a political spectrum” on a withdrawal of the Mahdi Army from Najaf in return for a US pullback from the city. However, if there was such an agreement it either fell apart or was rejected by the Americans, as on 12 May Mr Sadr was once again breathing fire and defiance at a press conference in Najaf where he declared that “we are ready for any US escalation and don’t expect otherwise from the American occupation. My desire is to die a martyr in this country.”
Road Map Deadline In Doubt
President George Bush was only stating the obvious when he said in an interview published in the Cairo daily al-Ahram on 8 May that the 2005 deadline in the quartet’s “road map” for the creation of a Palestinian state was no longer applicable. “2005 may be hard, since 2005 is right round the corner,” he said. “I think the timetable of 2005 isn’t as realistic as it was two years ago.” This theme was taken up with enthusiasm and embellished by Mr Sharon’s foreign policy adviser, Salman Shoval, who said on 8 May that “the target date of 2005 has become an impossibility because we are still at the starting point of the roadmap as a result of the Palestinian Authority’s refusal to combat terrorism. Under these conditions, it’s clear that the 2005 target date is no longer at all realistic.” Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has not given up on his parallel plan for a unilateral separation from the Palestinians following the resounding defeat of the plan in a Likud party referendum earlier this month. Mr Sharon announced on 9 May that he had cancelled a planned visit to the US in order to hold consultations at home on a modified plan, saying “it will take me another three weeks to put the plan together and then I will present it to the government.”
Syria An “Extraordinary Threat” To The US
It would probably come as news to the vast majority of Americans that Syria represents “an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy and economy of the US” (and it would certainly come as news to the Syrians). But that is what Mr Bush claimed in the 11 May White House statement imposing sanctions on Syria under the Syria Accountability Act. The statement accuses Syria of “supporting terrorism, continuing its occupation of Lebanon, pursuing weapons of mass destruction and missile programs and undermining US and international efforts with respect to the stabilization and reconstruction of Iraq,” adding that “the Syrian government must understand that its conduct alone will determine the duration of the sanctions,” (which, inter alia, ban all exports to Syria except food and medicines and provide for the freezing of Syrian assets in the US). The sanctions are unlikely to be unduly onerous economically for the Syrians, whose imports from the US are reckoned to be worth some $100mn annually, but their imposition at this juncture was symptomatic of the Bush administration’s indifference to good relations with the Arabs. As Arab League Secretary General 'Amr Musa put it on 12 May, the decision “adds to the negative steps taken by the US and its negative vision of relations with Arabs, from Palestine to Syria through Iraq, and is very regrettable.” Accordingly, while Syrian Prime Minister Naji 'Utri on 11 May said the sanctions were “unjust and unjustified,” Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom described them as “an important decision that demonstrates US determination to wage an unyielding war not only against terrorist organizations but also against states that support them.” Somewhere in between came the UK, where a spokesman for Prime Minister Tony Blair said on 12 May that “we have similar objectives and concerns to the US, but we pursue those through a policy of critical and constructive engagement which allows us to encourage and support reform while talking frankly and robustly about issues of concern.”
Charles Snow