VOL. XLVII
No 07
16
The Political Scene (16 February 2004)
The UN mission in Iraq to investigate the feasibility of direct elections has strongly endorsed the principle of holding them, albeit with reservations as to timing. The latest confrontation between Iranian reformists and conservatives has ended in victory for the latter.
UN Mission Endorses Elections
It does not look as if the UN mission sent to Iraq by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on 7 February to investigate the feasibility of holding direct elections for a provisional government is going to save the Americans’ bacon by ruling out the desirability of such elections. On the contrary, after meeting with the country’s senior Shi'a authority, Ayatollah ΄Ali Sistani, on 12 February, the head of the UN mission, former Algerian foreign minister Lakhdar Ibrahimi, declared that the Ayatollah “is sticking to his position and we share his opinion totally because elections are the only way to bring Iraq out of the tunnel… Ayatollah Sistani is completely within his rights to demand the holding of elections and we are completely in agreement with him because it is the right way to resolve the Iraqi problem.” However, Mr Ibrahimi added that “we are also in agreement with him that they must be well prepared to obtain the results called for by himself and the Iraqi people,” and this caveat was echoed in New York by UN spokesman Fred Eckhard, who said on the same day that Mr Annan “understands there is a consensus emerging” for direct elections, but believes “there is wide agreement that elections must be carefully prepared, and that they must be organized in technical, security and political conditions that give the best chance of producing a result that reflects the wishes of the Iraqi electorate.” The most likely outcome of the UN mission, therefore, is that it will endorse direct elections, but not before the 30 June deadline for the transfer of sovereignty set in the 15 November agreement between the Coalition Provisional Authority and the Iraqi Governing Council. So if the Ayatollah continues to insist on elections (and he shows no sign at all of changing his mind) and the UN mission concludes that more time is needed to ensure that these elections are “well prepared,” the Americans may have little choice but to scrap the timetable in the 15 November agreement and postpone their 30 June deadline for the transfer of sovereignty to a provisional government.
Reformists Lose Out In Iran
The latest confrontation between conservatives and reformists in Iran appears to have ended not with the bang threatened by the reformists but a whimper, after a second intervention by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on 4 February resulted in the reinstatement of only a further 200 of the 2,500 or so candidates for the 20 February parliamentary elections disqualified by the conservative Guardians Council (GC). This prompted 130 reformist deputies in the 290-seat Majlis to resign and the main reformist party, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), to announce that it would boycott the election, while President Mohammad Khatami warned on 7 February that the GC’s move would “make the elections less competitive and reduce the people’s interest in voting.” Ayatollah Khamenei answered the next day that “the elections have vital importance… to the country and our nation and must be held in a healthy, lively and enthusiastic climate” and that “it is appropriate that certain grievances of the organs against each other are ignored and all join hands in order to fulfill this grave task in the best and healthiest fashion.” With that, the reformists’ resistance appeared to collapse, although it was unclear whether the IIPF would carry through with its boycott or not (Mr Khatami’s own party, the League of Combatant Clerics, announced it would contest the elections regardless). However, with reformist candidates eliminated, the outcome of the elections appears to be a foregone conclusion, the only question being how many of an electorate thoroughly disillusioned with promises of reform will bother to turn out.
Charles Snow