VOL. XLVI
No 51/52
22/29
The Political Scene (22/29 December 2003)
The capture of Saddam Husain has removed a psychological barrier to Iraq’s reconstruction, but the Americans will still have to deal with Ayatollah 'Ali Sistani’s reservations about their plans to hand power to a provisional government. Israeli Prime Minister is threatening to “disengage” unilaterally from the Palestinians.
Saddam Captured
Russian deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov may have played down the capture of former Iraqi president Saddam Husain on 13 December as “mainly symbolic,” since his regime “was overthrown some time ago.” But psychologically, at least, the arrest of Mr Husain – who is to be put on trial in Iraq at some future date – is an important event that clears the way for further developments, although it would be foolhardy at this stage to predict what these might be. Internationally, opponents of the US invasion seized on the news to call for greater UN involvement in Iraq’s political reconstruction (as when Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov expressed the hope on 14 December that Mr Husain’s capture will “contribute to the strengthening of security in Iraq and to the process of political regulation in the country with the active participation of the UN”). It seemed more likely, however, that the US will feel it is now in a better position to proceed with its own plans to transfer sovereignty to a provisional Iraqi government in June next year. In Iraq itself, no-one was expecting any immediate effect on the level of violence in the country. In the longer run, though, Mr Husain’s removal from the Iraqi equation will probably have two countervailing effects domestically. Those Iraqis who were reluctant to support the coalition openly for fear that the former president might make a comeback will now presumably feel free to do so. But so, too, will those who were reluctant to oppose the coalition for fear that resistance might help Saddam return to power. In other words, both sides can be expected to come off the fence, and it will be a matter of considerable interest to the Americans, among others, who lands where.
Sistani Calls On UN To Decide On Elections
The Americans want their provisional government to be selected by a transitional assembly chosen through a series of “caucuses” in each of Iraq’s 18 governorates. Unfortunately for the Americans, the country’s leading Shi'a cleric, Ayatollah 'Ali al-Sistani, let it be known shortly after the plan was announced that he thinks this process is unnecessarily complicated and would prefer the transitional assembly to be elected directly. And the Ayatollah has now answered critics who argue that it would be impractical to hold elections so quickly by suggesting that it should be left to the UN to decide. Speaking after a meeting with the ayatollah on 12 December, Iraqi Governing Council (IGC) member Muwaffaq al-Ruba'i said that he had rejected a compromise proposal put forward by the IGC and that “Ayatollah Sistani maintains his call for elections in Iraq unless a neutral UN committee, appointed by Secretary General Kofi Annan, visits Iraq and reaches the conclusion that in the current circumstances it is technically and politically impossible to hold general elections.” Mr Annan himself underlined on 16 December that “the task of restoring the effective exercise of sovereignty to Iraqis, in the form of a provisional government, is urgent” and, in what might be seen as oblique criticism of the Americans’ plans, said that “while there may not be time to organize free, fair and credible elections for this purpose, it is essential that the process leading to the formation of a provisional government is fully inclusive and transparent. Iraqis must have real ownership of the process by which they are governed.” As for any potential UN role, Mr Annan emphasized that “we need much greater clarity on what is expected of the UN by Iraqis and by the coalition in terms of assistance to the political transition.” The UN secretary general reiterated his reservations on 18 December when he called for three-way talks with the IGC and the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to define “what is required of the UN between now and 30 June in this process that leads to the establishment of a provisional government,” adding that “it has to be a three way conversation and clarification. Once we have that, I will make a judgement whether we can take on that role, and if so how, and where and under what circumstances.” The problem is that while the Iraqis would be only too happy for the UN to play a major role in the transition, there is very little to indicate that the Americans in their present mood would welcome the UN poking an independent nose into the political reconstruction of Iraq.
Sharon Threatens To Act Unilaterally
For what was described in advance as a major policy pronouncement, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s 18 December speech turned out to be a distinctly damp squib. As a courtesy to the Americans, Mr Sharon paid lip service to the international road map, saying that Israel wants “to speedily advance implementation of the road map towards a quiet and genuine peace.” But he then went on to say that “we hope that the Palestinian Authority will carry out its part. However if in a few months the Palestinians still continue to disregard their part in implementing the road map, then Israel will initiate the unilateral security step of disengagement from the Palestinians.” What Mr Sharon describes disingenuously as “the unilateral security step of disengagement” in fact looks remarkably like an attempt by the Israeli prime minister to substitute his own plan for a Palestinian “state” for the road map, of which he has never been too fond. And while the Americans pretend to believe Mr Sharon is sincere in his support for the road map, White House spokesman Scott McClellan warned on 18 December that the US “would oppose any unilateral steps that block the road towards negotiations under the road map that leads to the two state vision” and that “a settlement must be negotiated and we would oppose any Israeli effort to impose a settlement.” The Palestinians might be forgiven for wondering just how vigorous the Bush administration’s opposition might be if Mr Sharon proceeds with his plan to settle matters unilaterally during a US election year.
Charles Snow