VOL. XLVI
No 34
25
The Political Scene (25 August 2003)
The suicide truck bombing of the UN headquarters in Baghdad has dealt a psychological blow to the rehabilitation and reconstruction process in Iraq and has given weight to suggestions that non-Iraqi hands might be detectable in some recent acts of violence. The US is increasing the pressure on Syria to prevent terrorists crossing into Iraq. And the Middle East peace process is in jeopardy again after a suicide bombing in Jerusalem and strong Israeli retaliation, prompting Hamas and Islamic Jihad to abandon their ceasefire.
A Bad Week In Iraq
The capture of former Iraqi Vice President Taha Yasin Ramadhan on 19 August and ΄Ali Hasan Majid, a cousin of the former president, on 21 August were two rare pieces of good news in what was a very bad week for the US occupying forces in Iraq. Within hours of the detention of Mr Ramadhan, a suicide bomber drove an explosives-laden truck into the Canal Hotel in Baghdad, the headquarters of the UN mission in Iraq, killing more than 20 people including special representative Sergio Vieira de Mello and injuring more than 80. The outrage has caused incalculable damage to the morale of those – Iraqis and foreigners alike – committed to rebuilding the country. The devastating bomb attack came on the heels of more mundane setbacks to the coalition forces – the sabotage of the main northern crude oil export pipeline, the bombing of a major water pipeline in Baghdad, and the daily attacks on US personnel and their positions – not to mention the constant looting of power facilities and other key installations.
The tendency of the coalition forces has been to assume that it is facing the last blows from increasingly desperate remnants of the previous regime and their supporters. But even before the UN bombing, they were beginning to suspect that the violence – including the bombing of the Jordanian embassy that preceded the Canal Hotel attack by two weeks – might be the work of Islamic militants who have used the chaos of the war and its aftermath as a cover to slip into Iraq. If this is the case, then the militants, as likely as not inspired, if not directly recruited, by al-Qa΄ida, can hardly have believed their luck when the war ended and the coalition forces promptly disbanded the Iraqi army and police force. Overnight, the borders of Iraq were left unguarded. The US authorities are presumably realizing now the folly of that decision; and rather than recruit and deploy a border security force, they are putting pressure on Iraq’s neighbors to do the guarding for them.
But it looks to be a case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. The US military over recent days says it has detained a number of non-Iraqis, believed to be members of Ansar al-Islam, a group with views similar to those of al-Qa΄ida. Many more, it is assumed, are still at large. Gen John Abizaid, head of the US’s Central Command implied as much on 21 August when he said there were “some indications of cooperation in specific areas” between Saddam loyalists and foreign terrorists. “I think Iraq,” he went on, “is at the center of the global war on terrorism.” Civilian Administrator Paul Bremer, too, said the previous day that “the security problem now has got a terrorist dimension, which is new, but the rest of the security is in better shape than it was when I arrived here. We have an element of terrorism. It doesn’t mean chaos.” Given the events of recent days in Iraq, the world at large will need more than a few brave words to be convinced of this.
Focus On Iran And Syria
Iran is never far from the lips of American officials when they raise the possibility of external meddling in Iraq, so it was no surprise that Mr Bremer pointed a finger at Tehran when this topic was raised in an interview published on 19 August. He said he was “still worried” about Iran’s meddling in Iraq’s affairs, and he accused the Revolutionary Guards and Iranian intelligence of working against the US-led coalition. “This is irresponsible conduct and runs counter to Iraq’s interests,” he went on. “We believe that a free Iraq must not be subject to any interference by its neighbors.”
While Iran is accused of doing the interfering, Iraq’s western neighbor, Syria, is being accused – more vociferously by the day – of harboring terrorist groups and allowing them to cross into Iraq. In the aftermath of the UN bombing, the pressure on Damascus is likely to be intensified. Mr Bremer said that the Syrian authorities were allowing “foreign terrorists” to sneak across the border into Iraq, adding that Washington had “held talks with the Syrians in this regard – we hope to see better cooperation.” Picking up this theme on 19 August, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said “I think we’ve all noted in the past some efforts that the Syrians have made, whether it was closing the border or kicking some people out. But like in the other areas, it’s been limited progress, it hasn’t been enough, and we’ve kept pressing for more… I am not in a position to give you an exact count of how many people might have crossed and what kind of people might have crossed. We certainly have been concerned about people crossing… It is Syria’s responsibility to prevent those things and we expect Syria to take that responsibility seriously.”
Syria can expect to be under even more US scrutiny after off-the-cuff remarks to reporters by Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Dan Gillerman, on 21 August. Asked if he thought Syria was linked to the truck bombing of the UN headquarters in Baghdad, he replied that there was insufficient evidence to suggest this. Nevertheless, he said “intelligence reports and reports we’ve seen and heard, also in the media, indicate the truck that blew up the compound in Baghdad actually came from Damascus.” Syria promptly denied the allegation as “a big lie”.
Renewed Syria Sanctions Threat
If Congressman Eliot Engel (D-NY) gets his way, Syria will be encouraged, when it comes to its policies in Lebanon, to take its responsibility seriously by the imposition of sanctions. In the run-up to the Iraq war, the Bush administration prevailed on Congressional leaders to block the proposed Syria Accountability Act. But now the bill looks like resurfacing. After a meeting with Mr Sharon in Jerusalem on 18 August, Mr Engel said that Syria’s “collaboration” with Iran in Lebanon, through its support for Hizbollah, was a cause for concern. “Sharon said that pressure was put on Syria during the Iraq war and the aftermath, but now the pressure has been let up. One way we could put back the pressure on Syria is by passing this act.” Mr Engel said he was certain of majority support in the House and the Senate for his proposed legislation which is co-sponsored by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla), adding that “we’ve gotten some rumblings that the administration may mute or lift their opposition” to the act.
Roadmap In Serious Trouble
The roadmap peace process is in real trouble – to a degree that could be fatal. The killing by Israeli forces of a Hamas member in the West Bank on 18 August was followed the day after by the suicide bombing of an Israeli bus in Jerusalem that killed at least 20 people, including women and children. This act, and the Israeli response to it, have put the process, and those committed to it, to their most severe test yet.
The fall-out from this atrocity, which was particularly gruesome even by the recent levels of violence in the Middle East, was immediate. Israel suspended all contact with the Palestinian leadership and sealed off the West Bank and Gaza Strip once more; and the latter broke off all ties with Islamic militant groups. After urgent consultations with his advisers Mr ΄Abbas said the Palestinian Authority would “stop all forms of dialogue with Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. It holds them responsible for harming the higher national interest of the Palestinian people.” This was a serious development. Up to that point, Mr ΄Abbas had been trying to persuade the militants not to respond with force to the murder of their leaders. He has clearly failed and must now contemplate ordering his security forces to take up arms against the militants. President Bush, speaking after the Jerusalem bombing, said the Palestinian Authority needed to “dismantle and destroy” these groups. The Palestinian leader faces a chronically difficult choice – but he can not put off the moment of truth much longer.
This was made clear in a statement released by Mr Sharon’s office on 21 August which said that “if the Palestinian government does not take all the steps necessary in the war on terror, actual and meaningful steps, it will not be possible to move to the stage of diplomatic discussions.” An indication that Israel did not expect the Palestinian Authority to take “actual and meaningful steps” came in a decision the same day to order the Israeli army into Jenin and Nablus in the West Bank to search for members of Islamic militant groups. A missile strike in the Gaza Strip on the same day killed a senior Hamas political leader – and the group promptly promised to retaliate. Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad said the Gaza attack nullified the ceasefire to which they had been adhering.
For now, formally at least, the peace process is still alive – although an Israeli government spokesman said after the Jerusalem bus bombing that “I don’t think there was ever a ceasefire.” But pressures ahead could be even more severe. The less that the Palestinian Authority does to disarm the militant groups, the more Israel will take steps to try to do so, leaving Mr ΄Abbas powerless and helpless. Against the background of this renewed cycle of violence, the Bush administration is likely to repeat its commitment to the roadmap. It knows that neither side in the conflict will want to say publicly that it has been torn up. Nevertheless, if the violence continues on the scale of the past few days, no-one will seriously be able to pretend that the map is worth the paper it is written on.
Gerald Butt
(Charles Snow is on holiday)