VOL. XLVI
No 32
The Political Scene (11 August 2003)
US occupation forces in Iraq have acknowledged that their heavy-handed search and arrest operations since the war have alienated the people. As a result, they are modifying their tactics and will give Iraqis a bigger role in security enforcement. Saudi Arabia is insisting that the Bush administration should declassify the section of a Congressional report on the 11 September bombings that allegedly links the kingdom with the attacks. Qatar has a new crown prince – the second peaceful replacement of an heir in a Gulf emirate this year
US To Soften Iraq Tactics
It took precisely 100 days from the ending of the war in Iraq for the message to sink in. The collective view of Iraqis all along was that the coalition forces had made a mistake in disbanding the country’s army and police force after the conflict. They also argued that the use of heavy-handed tactics against civilians and their property was winning the Americans more enemies than friends. Evidence that the message had sunk in came on 7 August when the US acknowledged that its actions were angering rather than pleasing Iraqis. Lt Gen Ricardo Sanchez, the commander of coalition ground forces, said in an interview with The New York Times that “it was a fact that I started to get multiple indicators that maybe our iron-fisted approach to the conduct of ops was beginning to alienate Iraqis. I started to get those sensings from multiple sources, all the way from the Governing Council down to average people… When you take a father in front of his family and put a bag over his head and put him on the ground, you have had a significant adverse effect on his dignity and respect in the eyes of his family. We created in this culture some Iraqis that then had to act, because of their value systems, against in terms of revenge, possibly because there were casualties on their side.”
Gen Sanchez said the change of military tactics would concentrate more on cooperation with Iraqi political and religious leaders in an attempt to improve intelligence so that future searches could be more precisely targeted. A greater role would also be given to Iraqi security services. But this is likely to be easier said than done. In the absence of a legitimate Iraqi government, any police force will essentially be working for the occupation authorities. Finding willing recruits in the current climate of lawlessness and continuing attacks on US forces may not be easy. In the end, there is no substitute for an Iraqi government to take care of these and all other sensitive issues as soon as possible.
Saudis Want The Truth
For Saudi Arabia – when it comes to relations with the US – it appears to be a case of “Damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.” Ever since the 11 September 2001 bombings, the kingdom has come under intense US pressure not only to be cooperative in the war against terrorism, but also to carry out domestic reforms. The aim of the latter, in general, is to make society more open and therefore, according to the US argument, less susceptible to religious and political fanaticism. Small but significant steps towards liberalization have been taken over the past 18 months. Calls for reform are not only debated openly these days, but they are also being considered and discussed by the most senior members of the royal family. The Saudi press, while still far behind that of some other Arab states in openness and balance, has greatly extended the scope of its coverage – even of acts of terrorism committed by Saudis inside the kingdom. And during the war in Iraq, a range of views was expressed in Saudi newspapers.
Given this progress, Saudi leaders may be forgiven for being perplexed by the decision of the Bush administration to censor 28 pages of a Congressional report on the 11 September bombings on alleged Saudi links with the attacks. Far from being relieved at the kingdom being spared possible embarrassment by the suppression of the crucial pages, Saudi leaders have gone out of their way to urge Washington to publish them. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Sa΄ud al-Faisal repeated the call for the declassification of the blanked out sections of the report – without success – in a meeting with President Bush in Washington on 30 July.
Speaking in Jiddah on 6 August, Prince Sa΄ud voiced the frustration felt in ruling circles in the kingdom at the suppression of the report – which has opened the door to insinuation and rumors about the Saudi role in 11 September. The minister said that Saudi Arabia had addressed all accusations leveled against it with facts and figures. But sections of the US Congress seemed to have “deaf ears” when it came to the kingdom’s efforts. “We have nothing to hide,” Prince Sa'ud continued. “How can Saudi Arabia be the main country fighting terrorism now and exchanging information that save the lives of people in the US and at the same time assist terrorism? How is that possible?” The foreign minister also made it clear that Saudi Arabia was not going to let the matter drop. “Where are the facts and where is the evidence?” he asked. “If they want to hide the truth, make false accusations and write unpublished documents here and there, we cannot deal with that. The truth needs to be told and these accusations need to be addressed for the sake of finding the truth.”
For the sake also, Prince Sa'ud might have added, of preventing relations between Riyadh and Washington deteriorating still further. Furthermore, keeping the pages in the Congressional report classified is giving ammunition to those Saudis who are critical of liberalization and what they have always regarded as Western hypocrisy.
New Qatari Crown Prince
The decision of the Amir of Qatar, Shaikh Hamad bin Khalifah Al Thani, on 5 August to name his fourth son, Shaikh Tamim, as crown prince in place of one of the latter’s elder brothers, Shaikh Jasim, took even those close to the ruling family in Doha by surprise, MEES understands. There was no official explanation for the move and little in the way of media speculation on it across the Arab world. The assumption is that Shaikh Hamad, for whatever reasons, decided that it would be in the country’s best interest for Shaikh Tamim, who heads the country’s Olympic committee, to succeed him. This is in keeping with tradition. When he took over from his father in a bloodless coup in 1995, Shaikh Hamad overlooked his first two sons and appointed his third as crown prince.
A similar desire to find the right son for the job – rather than appointing an heir on the basis of age or seniority – was behind the decision in June of Shaikh Saqr al-Qasimi, the Ruler of Ras al-Khaimah, to remove the title of crown prince from his son Shaikh Khalid after some 30 years and choose his fourth son, Shaikh Sa'ud to take the title.
The precise reasons for the decisions of the two Gulf rulers may never be known. The circumstances under which the new appointments were made underline the extent to which ultimate power in every Gulf state still rests in the hands of one man who is under no pressure to account for his actions. Nevertheless, the new appointments in Ras al-Khaimah and Qatar show that there is a measure of pragmatism and flexibility within the traditional power structure. And the fact that two crown princes have been removed peacefully from their positions – in a region where succession is a sensitive issue that can stir up strong emotions – should be seen at very least as a healthy indicator of the stability of the region.
Gerald Butt
(Charles Snow is on holiday)