VOL. XLVI
No 30
The Political Scene (28 July 2003)
The death of ex-president Saddam Husain’s two sons grabbed the headlines, but it was unclear what the practical consequences of this development might be. As the US casts about for international help in Iraq, the UN Special Representative for Iraq has been briefing the Security Council on the situation there. President Bush has excoriated Syria and Iran for supporting terrorism, and the EU has linked the development of its relations with Tehran to, inter alia, the Iranians’ cooperation with the IAEA.
Exit 'Uday And Qusay
The death of former Iraqi president Saddam Husain’s two sons, 'Uday and Qusay, in a firefight with US forces in Mosul on 23 July was undoubtedly a blow for however many supporters of the ex-president there remain in Iraq. As President George Bush put it on the next day, “now more than ever all Iraqis can know that the former regime is gone and will not be coming back.” (However, this deterrent effect is to some extent offset by the Americans’ all-or-nothing approach to eradicating the Ba’th party, which may be driving moderate Ba’this into the Saddamist camp.) Whether it is a famous victory for the American campaign to end the low-intensity guerrilla war against coalition forces is far less clear and would seem to depend on who is behind the attacks. The currently popular theory is that it is a mixture of Saddamists and Islamists. To the extent that it is the former, the removal of 'Uday and Qusay from the scene will presumably discourage the attackers. To the extent it is the latter, it presumably will not. In the immediate aftermath of the gunfight in Mosul it was pretty much business as usual, with further attacks on US forces near the city on 23 and 24 July. But it is early days yet, and the true impact of events in Mosul – if any - will only become apparent in the longer run.
Iraqis Want Self-Rule, Security And Services, Says UN’s De Mello
In the fullness of time, it may also emerge whether the Americans had any realistic plans for post-war Iraq before they invaded and occupied the country. But whatever these may (or may not) have been, the task of first stabilizing Iraq and then reconstructing it politically and economically is turning out to be so enormous that Washington has started casting about for military and financial help from the rest of the international community. (Other countries might be sorely tempted to point out that since the US ignored their objections before invading, they were under no legal or moral obligation to help extricate the Americans from a situation of their own making. But the fact is that Iraq is a mess that concerns everyone, and other countries may have little choice but to pitch in and help.) At present the Americans are soliciting this help on a bilateral basis and under the control of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). But countries such as Russia, Germany, India and France (in particular) want a new mandate from the UN first and a real role for the UN in the stabilization and reconstruction of Iraq. French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin expressed the views of this school of thought in a radio interview on 24 July, saying that “patching up a system on the basis of what exists now, adding foreign forces to the coalition forces does not seem to us to be the best way to ensure Iraq’s security.” He went on to argue that “we must put the UN at the heart of it. Only the UN can provide the security guarantees that are needed to allow the entire (international) community to work together.” Mr de Villepin called for this to be done through a modified version of resolution 1483, saying “we must lay out clearly the UN mandate and set the UN’s task with respect to both the political outlook and to those conditions of transparency which would allow the international community to intervene more actively on the economic and financial fronts. And on the security front, it must be a real peacekeeping force.”
The Iraqis too would like to see the UN playing a major role in their country, according to the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Iraq, Sergio Vieira de Mello, who told the Security Council on 22 July that the people of Iraq are seeking “an energetic, center-stage role” for the UN. Mr de Mello, who was briefing the Security Council as an introduction to the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of Security Council resolution 1483, (for excerpts of the report see pages D1-7) said that in his discussions with Iraqis “a number of consistent themes emerge.” First, the Iraqis “want to see themselves back at the helm of their country. They also want to see the arrival of security and the rule of law. Equally, Iraqis want to see the restoration of basic services.” The UN official welcomed the formation on 13 July of Iraq’s Governing Council as “a significant step” towards the goal of establishing Iraqi self-rule.
On the question of restoring law and order and security, the UN Special Representative said the coalition powers had the primary obligation to act, adding that “ultimately only Iraqis can perform the responsibility, on behalf of a national authority that enjoys credibility, respect and resources. Though we cannot, nor wish to, be a substitute for the CPA in this field, the UN stands ready to lend modest assistance.”
Turning to the oil-for-food program, Mr de Mello said that given its sheer scale, achieving completion by 21 November was always going to be a challenge. Nevertheless, “with a coordinated and determined effort on all sides it should prove possible. But needs will continue to exist far beyond the handover of the program, until the economy picks up and reliance on humanitarian assistance declines. In the centre and south, good cooperation has been established between the CPA, the Iraqi ministries and relevant UN agencies. Work is well under way on the prioritizing of contracts. It should be noted, however, that the number of contracts being adopted is much higher than initially envisaged because the humanitarian phase has been superseded by rehabilitation and recovery activities more quickly than anticipated.”
Looking ahead to the task of reconstruction, Mr de Mello noted that the needs were immense in the short and longer terms, “not only as a consequence of the conflict but maybe more as a consequence of 13 years of sanctions and neglect and decay. As reflected in 1483, this reconstruction is not only of a physical nature but also must include public administration, governance, civil society and all the other vital elements required for a new Iraqi society.”
Bush Attacks Syria And Iran: Tehran Under Pressure From EU
If anyone was under the impression that Washington’s recent silence on the subject of Iran and Syria betokened some softening of the Americans’ hostility towards these particular betes noires, President Bush made it clear on 21 July that this was not the case. Speaking at his ranch in Texas, Mr Bush called on all governments in the Middle East to support the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, adding: “This includes the governments of Syria and Iran. Their behavior is – today, Syria and Iran continue to harbor and assist terrorists. This behavior is completely unacceptable and states that support terror will be held accountable. Supporting and harboring terrorists undermines the prospects for peace in the Middle East, and betrays the true interests of the Palestinian people. Terrorism is the greatest obstacle to the emergence of a Palestinian state. And all leaders who seek this goal have an obligation to back up their words in real actions against terror. And leaders who are interested in a peaceful solution in the Middle East must support the efforts of Prime Minister 'Abbas to build a democratic Palestine and ease the hardships faced by the Palestinian people.”
Iran is also coming under pressure from the EU, which appeared to move a step in the direction wanted by the Americans (and the Israelis) in a joint declaration issued by the EU foreign ministers in Brussels on 21 July demanding the “urgent and unconditional acceptance” by Tehran of an additional protocol under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The declaration said that the EU expected Iran to “show full transparency and cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency” and that “progress in economic and political relations with Iran should be evaluated in parallel.” And for good measure, it added that “more intense economic relations can be achieved only if progress is reached in the four areas of concern, namely human rights, terrorism, non-proliferation and the Middle East peace process.”
Charles Snow