VOL. XLVI
No 27
The Political Scene (7 July 2003)
The Palestinians have declared a conditional cease-fire and Israel has withdrawn from northern Gaza in the first, tentative moves towards implementing the international road map. The senior Shi'a cleric in Iraq has come out against American plans to draft a constitution.
Better Late Than Never
They came more than a month late according to the timetable in the international Quartet’s “road map,” but at least the cease-fire on the ground declared by the Palestinians and Israel’s troop redeployments last week marked the first moves towards ending the bitter three-year old al-Aqsa intifada. On 29 June the Palestinian groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad issued a statement declaring that “we, the factions of the Palestinian resistance…declare the suspension of military operations against the Zionist enemy for three months,” and the largest Palestinian party, Fatah, along with its al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, subsequently announced that it would also observe the cease-fire. (The Hamas/Islamic Jihad statement made it clear that the decision was conditional upon “a total cessation of all forms of Zionist aggression against our people, of incursions, demolitions, closures, sieges on cities, villages and refugee camps, including the siege imposed on President Yasir 'Arafat, the bulldozing of agricultural land, attacks on land and property…the total cessation of assassination operations, massacres and of all arrest and deportation campaigns against our people, their leaders and their fighters.” ) The Israelis were not happy with this development, which Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom immediately dismissed as a “ticking bomb” designed to “maintain the infrastructure of terror,” but the fact that they reciprocated by withdrawing from northern Gaza on 30 June and Bethlehem in the West Bank on 2 July could probably be attributed to fairly forceful intervention by US national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, who was sent to the region to get things moving. An ostensibly cordial meeting between Israel Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Palestinian counterpart, Mahmud 'Abbas, on 1 July added to the impression of movement, although there were plenty of people on both sides who doubted that this would lead anywhere. Presumably (if the cease-fire holds), the two sides will now proceed to Phase II of the road map “Transition – June 2003-December 2003,” during which “efforts are focused on the option of creating an independent Palestinian state with provisional borders in 2003.” Whether that is a realistic goal, given the numbers of Palestinians and Israelis who oppose the road map, must be open to doubt.
Sistani Calls For Elections
President George Bush’s 1 July admission that “the rise of Iraq as an example of moderation and democracy and prosperity is a massive and long-term undertaking” came on the same day as the senior Shi'a cleric in Iraq, Ayatollah 'Ali al-Sistani, dealt a significant blow to US administrator Paul Bremer’s plans for Iraq’s political future. Mr Bremer announced in early June that a 25-30 member political council would be appointed this month which would name “key advisers” to ministries and work in parallel with a separate and larger appointed body that will draft a constitution. However, in a fatwa (religious ruling) published on 1 July Ayatollah Sistani declared that Iraq’s new constitution must be drawn up by an elected body, not one appointed by the occupation authorities. “The authorities are not entitled to name the members of the assembly charged with drafting the constitution,” the fatwa states. “…There is no guarantee that such a convention will draft a constitution upholding the Iraqi people’s interests and expressing their national identity.” The Ayatollah called for general elections to be held “so that every eligible Iraqi can elect his representatives to the assembly that will draft the constitution. Then there must be a public referendum. It is incumbent on all believers to demand the realization of this important matter, and to join together in achieving it.” Mr Bremer’s reaction was to tell a press conference that “the constitution will be written by Iraqis and approved by them. It will be legitimate and grow out of the Iraqi people,” but the fact remains that as far as the majority of Iraqis are concerned, legitimacy is conferred by leaders such as Ayatollah Sistani and not by the Coalition Provisional Authority which Mr Bremer heads.
Charles Snow