VOL. XLVI
No 25
The Political Scene (23 June 2003)
Iraq’s main Shi'a political party is holding out an unmistakable olive branch to the Americans, but so far the Americans have failed to react. The IAEA, at the insistence of the US, has called on Iran to accept closer supervision of its nuclear activities. US Secretary of State Colin Powell is trying his hand at getting the international road map to peace across the starting line. Jordan has held parliamentary elections.
Good News And Bad News In Iraq
There was good news and bad news for the Americans in Iraq this week. The bad news was that American soldiers and Iraqi civilians continued to die in sporadic clashes between the two (mainly in the Sunni heartland around Baghdad). The good news was twofold. Firstly coalition forces announced on 19 June that they had captured the fourth most wanted man on their list – after Saddam Husain himself and his sons Qusai and 'Udai – presidential secretary 'Abid Hamid Mahmud al-Tikriti. And secondly, the deputy head of the most powerful Shi'a group in post-Saddam Iraq, 'Abd al-'Aziz Hakim of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), has made it very clear that SCIRI has nothing to do with the attacks on coalition forces and no axe to grind with the Americans (at least for the moment), despite its close relations with Iran. “Iran does not interfere in our affairs,” he told the daily al-Hayat on 18 June. “Our decisions are independent and we differ with (Iran) sometimes and the clearest of these differences is ties with America.” He added that as far as the attacks are concerned, “we do not approve of such acts. There are no fatwas from Iraqi scholars for these kinds of acts because they cause more problems.” This is not the first time that SCIRI has gone out if its way to conciliate the Americans – some weeks ago it announced that it was ordering its military wing, the Badr Brigade, to lay down its arms. However it remains to be seen whether the Americans will take Mr Hakim’s statements at face value or will continue to treat Iraq’s Shi'a majority as little more than proxies for the mullahs in Tehran. Given SCIRI’s organizational skills and popularity (and the coalition’s apparent lack of either), though, it might be a good idea for the occupation authorities to accept with alacrity the olive branch they are being offered.
US Campaigns Against Iran At IAEA
That the US is convinced that Iran is up to no good was confirmed at the meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors which opened in Vienna on 16 June, where the Americans campaigned for closer IAEA supervision of Iran’s nuclear activities. (As the meeting got under way, the Americans received qualified backing from the EU foreign ministers, who issued a statement in Luxembourg saying that “the nature of some aspects of Iran’s programs raises serious concerns.”) Specifically, the US and the IAEA want Iran to sign the Additional Protocol, which gives the agency the right to impose a strict program of nuclear inspections, with State Department spokesman Richard Boucher saying on 16 June that “we’re looking for the board to make clear its concern, to call on Iran to fix the problems, to call on Iran to sign the Additional Protocol.” (Mr Boucher also claimed that “virtually every country in the world has accepted these additional protocols.” For the record, of the 188 countries that have signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, 78 have approved the protocol and 32 have ratified it.) President George W Bush stepped up the pressure on the IAEA on 18 June when he declared that “the international community must come together to make it very clear to Iran that we will not tolerate construction of a nuclear weapon. Iran would be dangerous if they have a nuclear weapon. I brought this subject up in the G8; we had a good discussion on the subject, with near universal agreement that we all must work together to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.” And on 19 June IAEA board produced a “chairwoman’s statement” (rather than the resolution the Americans were seeking) urging Iran “to promptly and unconditionally conclude and implement” the Additional Protocol so that the IAEA “could provide credible assurances regarding the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities, particularly the absence of undeclared material and activities.” American IAEA ambassador Kenneth Brill declared himself to be “very satisfied“ with “an important message from the board that it supports the US position of concern about Iran’s nuclear program.” However, the Russians also expressed satisfaction at the outcome, with Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov saying that “the IAEA’s board of governors did not go down the path of adopting strict resolutions condemning Iran.” As for Iran, its IAEA representative, Ali Salehi, told reporters that “we have dissociated ourselves” from the part of the statement calling on Tehran to sign the Additional Protocol, adding that the Iranian position had won the support of 15 non-aligned countries on the 35-member IAEA board.
Road Map Stalled
There appears to have been something of a let-up in Palestinian attacks on Israelis and vice-versa in the last week, although whether this is due to efforts to embark on the “road map” to peace is unclear. The difficulties in making any progress when neither side is willing to take the first step were aptly demonstrated when Palestinian official Yasir 'Abd Rabbu said on 13 June (after a lethal Israeli helicopter gunship attack in Gaza) that “the Palestinian Authority cannot meet its responsibilities without a US guarantee that Israel will stop its military escalation” and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon replied on 16 June that “as long as there is nobody on the Palestinian side who wants or is able to fight terrorism, Israel will continue to strike at the terrorists and their organizations.” US envoy John Wolf arrived in the region on 14 June to try to break this impasse, and Secretary of State Colin Powell was due to meet with Mr Sharon and Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmud 'Abbas as MEES went to press on 20 June. (Mr Powell was also scheduled to meet with the other members of the quartet – the EU, UN and Russia - in Jordan on the sidelines of the World economic forum on 22 June.) However, Mr Powell was not exactly radiating optimism (which was probably wise in the circumstances). He told reporters en route to the Middle East on 19 June that “tomorrow is another day… it is not as if this was a special day or that I was expecting something special to happen tomorrow.”
Jordan’s Elections
Representatives of tribes and families loyal to the ruling Hashemite dynasty won some two thirds of the 110 seats contested in Jordan’s 17 June parliamentary elections, according to Interior Minister Qaftan Majali, while the Islamists of the Islamic Action Front (IAF) - the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, which boycotted the last elections in October 1997 – won 17 seats. This means that opinion hostile to Jordan’s peace treaty with Israel will be represented in the new parliament, unlike in the old one. But it also appears to mean that the urban middle class – the building block of any lasting democracy – is being marginalized in favor of tribal and religious groups, a process which, if applied elsewhere (such as Kuwait which is holding parliamentary elections in early July), does not bode well for the future of democratization in the Arab world.
Charles Snow