VOL. XLIV
No. 17
23 April 2001
UAE
UAE Central Bank Figures Show Rise In Liquidity And 17% GDP Growth
Figures released recently by the Central Bank of the UAE show the impact of a whole year of solid oil prices, which averaged $26.10/B, on the country’s overall liquidity (M1), which rose from Dh30.3bn ($8.2bn) at the end of 1999, to Dh34.1bn ($9.3bn) at the end of 2000 (see Table 1 below). According to the Bank’s Statistical Bulletin (Vol. 20, No 4) for the final quarter of 2000, private domestic liquidity (M2) grew by 15.3% to Dh127bn ($34.6bn) during the course of the year, while overall domestic liquidity (M3) rose by 18.5%. The same figures also showed a healthy increase in both the Central Bank’s assets, up 27.8% to Dh50.2bn ($13.7bn), and those of the banking sector, which rose from Dh251.1bn ($68.4bn) at the end of 1999 to Dh275.9bn ($75.2bn) at the end of 2000.
The Statistical Bulletin also revealed growth figures for the economy as a whole, with GDP at current prices rising by 17.1% from Dh190.5bn ($51.9bn) at the end of 1999 to Dh223bn ($60.1bn) at the end of 2000 (see Table 2 below). Total exports for the UAE rose by 24% to Dh159bn ($43.3bn), with a 24.4% rise in oil export revenues to Dh70bn ($19bn) and a subsequent rise in the country’s trade surplus of 157%.
Macro-economic projections for the country are positive. The Minister of Planning, Shaikh Humaid bin Ahmad al-Mu'alla, recently suggested that GDP could rise as high as Dh230bn ($62.6bn) in 2001 (MEES, 26 March). But the UAE’s ongoing dependence on oil as a revenue source is increasing. The Central Bank’s figures for government finances in 1999 show that oil and gas collectively contributed 64% of government revenues, compared to 60% in 1998. At the same time, the contribution of tax revenues fell from 18.4% in 1998 to 16.5% in 1999, while customs revenues and other revenues contributed 4.3% and 12.2% respectively in 1999, compared to 4.3% and 14.1% the previous year. Similarly, the proportional contribution to non-tax revenues of ‘enterprise profits’ and ‘other’ revenues fell in 1999 compared to the previous year. These two categories provided 27% of total non-tax revenues in 1998, compared to 23% in 1999, with oil and gas providing the remainder.
Table 1
Selected Monetary And Banking Indicators
(DhMn)
|
Indicator |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 (Dec) |
|
Central Bank of the UAE |
|||||
|
- Total Assets/Liabilities |
29,323 |
30,535 |
33,138 |
39,233 |
50,136 |
|
- Foreign Assets And Gold Holdings |
29,183 |
30,476 |
32,996 |
39,091 |
49,979 |
|
- Currency Issued |
7,827 |
8,648 |
9,621 |
12,896 |
12,244 |
|
Liquidity Indicators |
|||||
|
- Money Supply (M1) |
22,266 |
25,368 |
27,783 |
30,252 |
34,067 |
|
- Private Domestic Liquidity (M2) |
86,987 |
94,854 |
98,824 |
110,130 |
127,000 |
|
- Overall Domestic Liquidity (M3) |
104,459 |
110,511 |
119,199 |
132,482 |
157,029 |
|
Banks1 |
|||||
|
- Total Assets/Liabilities |
192,532 |
210,880 |
235,070 |
251,091 |
275,995 |
|
- Foreign Assets |
70,562 |
76,720 |
81,932 |
81,807 |
90,351 |
|
- Foreign Assets To Total Assets (%) |
36.7 |
36.4 |
34.9 |
32.6 |
32.7 |
|
- Foreign Liabilities |
37,322 |
45,734 |
53,332 |
54,570 |
52,414 |
|
- Foreign Liabilities To Total Liabilities (%) |
19.4 |
21.7 |
22.7 |
21.7 |
19 |
|
Deposits2 |
|||||
|
- Residents |
89,996 |
94,120 |
101,279 |
111,148 |
134,869 |
|
- Non-Residents |
3,605 |
4,413 |
5,110 |
6,394 |
8,229 |
|
Bank Credit3 |
|||||
|
- Residents |
95,156 |
105,415 |
121592 |
132,191 |
138,225 |
|
- Non-Residents |
11,024 |
11,504 |
13532 |
14,972 |
16,990 |
Source: Statistical Bulletin, Quarterly Oct-Dec 2000, Vol 20, No 4, Central Bank of the UAE.
1) Including Banca Commercial Italiana.
2) Not including Interbank deposits.
3) Not including loans to banks.
Table 2
Selected Economic Indicators
|
Indicator |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
|
Population (in thousands) |
2,479 |
2,624 |
2,776 |
2,938 |
3,108 |
|
GDP, in Current Prices (DhBn) |
175.8 |
184.5 |
173.1 |
190.5 |
223.0 |
|
GDP Growth Rate (%) |
12.05 |
4.95 |
-6.18 |
10.05 |
17.08 |
|
Consumer Price Index (1990=100) |
132.7 |
135.4 |
138.1 |
140.8 |
- |
|
Employees (‘000s) |
1,274 |
1,346 |
1,407 |
1,462 |
1,590* |
|
Per Capita Income (Dh ‘000s) |
62.5 |
62.4 |
54.1 |
56.5 |
63.8 |
|
Rate of Growth of Final Consumption (%) |
11.0 |
3.3 |
6.2 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
|
Rate of Growth of Fixed Capital Formation (%) |
6.1 |
7.5 |
2.4 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
|
Total Exports and Re-Exports (DhBn)1 |
121.95 |
125.49 |
111.65 |
128.88 |
159.00 |
|
Crude Oil Exports (DhBn) |
52.00 |
49.10 |
34.60 |
45.40 |
70.10 |
|
Total Re-Exports (DhBn) |
37.93 |
39.08 |
42.38 |
45.06 |
46.90 |
|
Total Imports (DhBn)2 |
94.83 |
97.70 |
105.94 |
112.65 |
117.25 |
|
Trade Balance (DhBn) |
27.12 |
27.79 |
5.71 |
16.23 |
41.75 |
|
Current Account Balance (DhBn) |
22.52 |
22.69 |
-0.39 |
10.23 |
33.75 |
|
Capital Account Balance (DhBn) |
-20.24 |
-21.49 |
+3.15 |
-4.61 |
-23.34 |
|
Balance of Payments Overall (DhBn) |
+2.28 |
+1.20 |
+2.76 |
+5.62 |
+10.41 |
|
Average Oil Price ($/B) |
19.70 |
18.80 |
12.40 |
17.60 |
26.10 |
|
Dh Exchange Rate/$3 |
3.671 |
3.671 |
3.6725 |
3.6725 |
3.6725 |
Source: Statistical Bulletin, Quarterly Oct-Dec 2000, Vol 20, No 4, Central Bank of the UAE.
1) Including exports from Jebel Ali Free Zone (Dubai).
2) Including imports Jebel Ali Free Zone (Dubai).
3) Effective Nov 1997, the Dh Exchange Rate has been adjusted to Dh3.6725/$.
* Estimated number.
Table 3
Consolidated Government Finance Account
(DhMn)
|
1994* |
1995* |
1996* |
1997* |
1998* |
1999** |
|
|
Total Revenues |
37,464 |
42,533 |
51,231 |
56,192 |
42,713 |
43,761 |
|
Tax Revenues |
4,837 |
7,184 |
9,612 |
8,258 |
7,853 |
7,224 |
|
Customs |
736 |
1,435 |
1,427 |
1,676 |
1,821 |
1,883 |
|
Other |
4,101 |
5,749 |
8,185 |
6,582 |
6,032 |
5,341 |
|
Non-Tax Revenues |
32,627 |
35,349 |
41,619 |
47,934 |
34,860 |
36,537 |
|
Oil and Gas |
28,694 |
32,033 |
37,007 |
41,140 |
25,500 |
28,054 |
|
Enterprise Profits |
1,422 |
1,311 |
1,989 |
2,152 |
3,051 |
3,374 |
|
Other |
2,511 |
2,005 |
2,623 |
4,642 |
6,309 |
5,109 |
|
Total Expenditures |
54,946 |
62,135 |
73,825 |
64,391 |
71,469 |
72,009 |
|
Current |
39,204 |
44,401 |
58,846 |
48,002 |
51,296 |
55,782 |
|
Wages and Salaries |
10,914 |
11,627 |
12,580 |
13,115 |
12,536 |
12,590 |
|
Goods and Services |
15,773 |
16,997 |
18,295 |
18,999 |
19,609 |
21,375 |
|
Subsidies and Transfers |
4,172 |
7,391 |
18,634 |
6,967 |
7,895 |
9,625 |
|
Other |
8,345 |
8,386 |
9,337 |
8,921 |
11,256 |
12,192 |
|
Development |
11,745 |
11,990 |
10,193 |
10,842 |
13,917 |
13,682 |
|
Loans and Equity |
3,997 |
5,744 |
4,786 |
5,547 |
6,258 |
2,545 |
|
Domestic |
4,067 |
5,794 |
4,141 |
4,585 |
2,867 |
2,207 |
|
Foreign |
-70 |
-50 |
645 |
962 |
3,389 |
338 |
|
Overall Surplus (+/-) |
-17,482 |
-19,602 |
-22,594 |
-8,199 |
-28,756 |
-28,248 |
|
Financing |
17,482 |
19,602 |
22,594 |
8,199 |
28,756 |
28,248 |
|
Domestic Banking System |
2,195 |
-3,042 |
2,148 |
598 |
-1,248 |
1,108 |
|
Other1 |
15,287 |
22,644 |
20,446 |
7,601 |
30,004 |
27,140 |
Source: Statistical Bulletin, Quarterly Oct-Dec 2000, Vol 20, No 4, Central Bank of the UAE.
1) Transfers from government investment income.
* Revised figures.
**Preliminary figures.