VOL. XLV
No 3
21 January 2002
OIL PRICES
Latest Budget Oil Price Assumptions Reiterate Downward Trend
The latest
round of oil price assumptions – from Saudi Arabia, Oman, Yemen, Syria and Iran
– demonstrates a considerably more conservative forecasting environment than
earlier projections in other oil producing countries and a continued downward
trend. In 2001, oil-producing countries had adopted significantly higher oil
price assumptions, generally above the $20/B mark (see Table below). But as oil
prices fell in the latter part of 2001 governments have taken a more
conservative stance, with the latest set of results averaging $18.4/B. Saudi
Arabia has issued the lowest oil price assumption to date of $15.5/B (MEES,
17 December 2001).
Crude Oil Export Prices for Selected Oil-Producing
Countries(1)
|
|
Budget Oil Price Assumption* |
Price Avg(2) |
Price Avg(2) |
|
|
|
|
Country |
$/B 2001 |
$/B 2002 |
($/B - 2000) |
($/B - 2001) |
Fiscal Yr |
MEES Reference |
|
Algeria |
22 |
22 |
28.8 |
- |
Calendar Yr |
3 Apr 2000 |
|
Bahrain |
15-18 |
15-18 |
- |
- |
Calendar
Yr |
13 Nov 2000 |
|
Indonesia |
24 |
22 |
28.8 |
- |
1 April-31
Dec |
- |
|
Iran |
20 |
18-19 |
25.0 |
24(5) |
21 Mar-20
Mar |
14 Jan 2002 |
|
Kuwait |
15 (2001-02) |
- |
25.9 |
23.50 |
31 Mar-1
April |
29 Oct 2001 |
|
Mexico |
18 |
17 |
- |
19 |
Calendar
Yr |
- |
|
Nigeria |
22 |
18 |
28.5 |
- |
Calendar
Yr |
- |
|
Norway |
22.3 |
20.88 |
- |
- |
Calendar
Yr |
|
|
Oman |
18 |
18 |
26.6 |
23 |
Calendar
Yr |
14 Jan 2002 |
|
Qatar |
15
(2000-01) |
- |
27.6 |
- |
31 Mar-1 Apr |
17 Apr 2000 |
|
Russia |
- |
18.50 |
- |
18 (2001-02)(4) |
Calendar
Yr |
17 Dec 2001 |
|
S. Arabia |
20-21 |
15.5 |
25-27 |
22 |
Calendar
Yr |
1 Jan 2001 |
|
Syria |
24 |
20-24(6) |
25.0 |
- |
Calendar
Yr |
15 Jan 2001 |
|
Venezuela |
20 |
18.50 |
26.3 |
21.61(3) |
Calendar Yr |
8 Jan 2001 |
|
Yemen |
22 |
18 |
28.2 |
- |
Calendar
Yr |
11 Dec 2001 |
(1) Figures are
drawn from a variety of official and non-official sources.
(2) Estimated.
(3) As at 17
October.
(4) According
to Troika Dialog Bank estimates.
(5) For 1H
FY2001-02
(6) Assumes
$20/B for heavy crude and $24/B for light crude.
* Budget oil price
assumptions are based on the price of export crude.
Copyright © 2002 Middle East Economic Survey