VOL. XLV
No 50
CASPIAN
Kazakhstan 2003 Budget Based On Oil Price Of $21.20/B, Azerbaijan On $19.50/B
Kazakhstan’s 2003 draft budget has been based on an oil price assumption of $21.20/B. The government has put expected revenues at 621.6bn tenges ($3.98bn) and planned expenditure at 704.4bn tenges ($4.51bn). GDP is expected to be 4,144bn tenges ($26.51bn). The budget deficit is therefore around 2% of GDP and the government plans a deficit at this level for the next three years.
The government of Azerbaijan has tightened its fiscal policy for 2003, reducing its target deficit to 1% of GDP from an expected 1.2% of GDP in 2002. The 2003 budget is based on an oil price assumption of $19.50/B. While the government aims to balance its budget in the medium term, this is thought to be unlikely due to expectations of falling oil prices after 2004 and the overdependence of state funds on oil revenues.
Crude Oil Export Prices for Selected Oil-Producing Countries
|
|
Budget Oil Price Assumption* |
|
Actual Oil Price |
|
||||
|
Country |
2003 $/B |
2002 $/B |
2001 $/B |
2000 $/B |
|
2001 $/B |
2000 $/B |
Fiscal Yr |
|
Algeria |
19 |
22 |
22 |
28.8 |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
Azerbaijan |
19.50 |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
- |
|
Bahrain |
|
15-18 |
15-18 |
- |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
Indonesia |
¹22 |
22 |
24 |
28.8 |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
Iran |
|
18-19 |
20 |
25.0 |
|
|
|
21 Mar-20 Mar |
|
Kazakhstan |
21.20 |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
- |
|
Kuwait |
|
15 |
15 |
25.9 |
|
20.7 |
25.1 |
1 April-31 Mar |
|
Mexico |
17 |
²15.50 |
18 |
- |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
Nigeria |
21 |
18 |
22 |
28.5 |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
Norway |
24.30 |
20.88 |
22.30 |
- |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
Oman |
|
18 |
18 |
26.6 |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
Qatar |
|
16 |
15 |
27.6 |
|
|
|
1 April-31 Mar |
|
Russia |
21.50 |
18.50 |
- |
- |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
Saudi Arabia |
18 |
15.50 |
20-21 |
25-27 |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
Sudan |
20 |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
- |
|
Syria |
20-24 |
20-24 |
24 |
25.0 |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
Venezuela |
17-18 |
18.50 |
20 |
26.3 |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
Yemen |
21 |
18 |
22 |
28.2 |
|
|
|
Calendar Yr |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: MEES.
* Budget oil price assumptions are based on the price of export crude.
¹ Revised upwards from August draft budget oil price assumption of $20.50/B.
² Price assumption revised down to $15.50/B from $17/B.