VOL. XLVII
No 08
OPEC
OPEC Output Continues Upward Trend In January As Iran Sustains Over 4Mn B/D
OPEC oil production continued its upward trend in January, rising for the seventh consecutive month to 28.46mn b/d from 27.985mn b/d in December, according to MEES estimates. OPEC-10 (OPEC without Iraq) production also rose in the month to 26.46mn b/d from 26.185mn b/d in December. OPEC-10 production exceeded the 1 November 2003 ceiling of 24.5mn b/d by 1.96mn b/d. The increase in production above quotas shows that OPEC member countries continued to boost volumes in the first month of the year to counter prices that have stayed stubbornly above the group’s target $22-28/B range for the OPEC Basket for some weeks. Speaking to MEES in Algiers on 10 February, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi said that OPEC production over and above the 1 November ceiling was done “in an informal manner but by agreement” to prevent the oil market from overheating (MEES, 16 February).
OPEC Crude Oil Production 2H 2003 – January 2004
(MEES Estimates – ‘000 B/D)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quota |
Quota |
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
2003 |
2003 |
2003 |
Average |
|||||||
|
|
Jan |
Dec |
Nov |
Oct |
Sep |
Aug |
Jul |
1 Nov |
1 June |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
|
Algeria |
1,100 |
1,200 |
1,200 |
1,200 |
1,150 |
1,100 |
1,100 |
782 |
811 |
1,150 |
883 |
828 |
|
Indonesia |
1,100 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,020 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,270 |
1,317 |
1,030 |
1,117 |
1,211 |
|
Iran |
4,150 |
3,940 |
4,140 |
4,040 |
3,860 |
4,020 |
3,980 |
3,597 |
3,729 |
3,895 |
3,470 |
3,707 |
|
Iraq |
2,000 |
1,800 |
2,000 |
1,550 |
1,400 |
1,050 |
700 |
|
|
1,288 |
2,014 |
2,312 |
|
Kuwait* |
2,300 |
2,300 |
2,200 |
2,300 |
2,300 |
2,400 |
2,100 |
1,966 |
2,038 |
2,220 |
1,853 |
2,042 |
|
Libya |
1,450 |
1,450 |
1,400 |
1,400 |
1,400 |
1,400 |
1,400 |
1,312 |
1,360 |
1,413 |
1,317 |
1,372 |
|
Nigeria |
2,200 |
2,250 |
2,200 |
2,150 |
2,200 |
2,050 |
2,000 |
2,018 |
2,092 |
2,072 |
1,978 |
2,127 |
|
Qatar |
700 |
725 |
700 |
700 |
680 |
650 |
700 |
635 |
658 |
714 |
640 |
681 |
|
S Arabia* |
8,650 |
8,500 |
8,350 |
8,600 |
8,550 |
8,550 |
8,500 |
7,963 |
8,256 |
8,788 |
7,551 |
7,961 |
|
UAE |
2,210 |
2,220 |
2,135 |
2,260 |
2,250 |
2,240 |
2,250 |
2,138 |
2,217 |
2,217 |
1,952 |
2,126 |
|
Venezuela |
2,600 |
2,600 |
2,600 |
2,600 |
2,650 |
2,630 |
2,650 |
2,819 |
2,923 |
2,308 |
2,635 |
2,821 |
|
Total |
28,460 |
27,985 |
27,925 |
27,820 |
27,440 |
27,090 |
26,380 |
|
|
27,095 |
25,409 |
27,188 |
|
OPEC 10** |
26,460 |
26,185 |
25,925 |
26,270 |
26,040 |
26,040 |
25,680 |
24,500 |
25,400 |
25,807 |
23,394 |
24,876 |
* Includes 50% share of Neutral Zone output, which averaged 600,000 b/d in January.
** Excludes Iraq
Iranian production rose again to 4.15mn b/d, around the high levels seen in the second half of 2003 after a dip in December, with exports standing at 2.7mn b/d and deliveries to domestic refineries stable at 1.45mn b/d. Iran has demonstrated that it is now capable of sustaining oil production above 4mn b/d. Iraqi production was made up of 1.54mn b/d of exports and 460,000 b/d of deliveries to domestic refineries and processed crude used in barter deals. Algerian production was down due to the suspension of exports at the Skikda terminal and the shut-down of the refinery after the 19 January fire at the LNG complex (MEES, 26 January). Both the port and refinery were undamaged by the blast, but routine checks meant that the facilities remained shut for several days after the blast. Bad weather is also understood to have affected loadings at Algerian ports in January.