France has chosen to recognize the Libyan insurgents just as the tide of battle may be turning against them. Yemeni President 'Ali 'Abd Allah Salih continues to insist on serving his full term in office. Small demonstrations have continued in Saudi Arabia despite the authorities' attempts at prevention. Tunisia has removed the last vestiges of the ancien regime and set a date for the election of a body to write a new constitution. In Bahrain hard-line Shi'a groups are calling for the abolition of the monarchy. Morocco and Oman are trying to head off trouble, and even in the UAE there are stirrings of political activism.

Qadhafi Goes On The Offensive

In Libya the drive west by insurgents based in Benghazi appears to have run out of steam, and towards the end of the week forces loyal to Col Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi had gone over to the offensive and had reportedly recaptured the town of Zawiya west of Tripoli and the oil terminal at Ras Lanuf more than 300 miles east of Tripoli on the Gulf of Sirte. Indeed, so marked was the shift in military momentum that US National Intelligence Director James Clapper told a senate committee on 10 March that "we believe that Qadhafi is in this for the long haul. He appears to be hunkering down for the duration" and that loyalist forces were better equipped and had more logistical resources and "over longer-term…the regime will prevail."

That possibility has given rise to considerable debate as to what the international community can do to assist the insurgents, the most obvious option being the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya, and on 7 March the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council called on the Security Council "to protect Libyan civilians, including through a no-fly zone." However Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made it clear that the Security Council was unlikely to take such action when he said on 10 March that while Russia will "closely study" initiatives to help the rebels, "in the UN charter and other international accords, it is clearly stated that each nation has the right to decide its own future. Intervention in internal affairs, especially military interference, is unacceptable." Meanwhile US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on 8 March that as far as a no-fly zone is concerned, "we think it's important that the UN make this decision, not the US" and NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen warned on 10 March that a no-fly zone could only happen if there was a demonstrable need, a clear legal basis (meaning "a clear UN mandate") and firm regional support. So with NATO and the  EU unable to arrive  at a common position and the UN facing a Russian veto, it may well be that the insurgents in Libya will be left by default to fend for themselves.

France Recognizes NLC

It was at this juncture that the French, having missed the boat in Tunisia, decided to jump the gun in Libya by recognizing the umbrella organization of the Benghazi-based opposition, the National Libyan Council (NLC). After a meeting between President Nicolas Sarkozy and two NLC representatives on 10 March, an Elysée official told reporters that "France recognizes the NLC as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people. There will be an exchange of ambassadors between Paris and Benghazi." If the French were hoping to persuade the rest of the EU to follow their lead, they were in for a disappointment. The other European hardliners, the British, were, as ever, hedging their bets, with a Foreign Office spokesman telling Reuters on 10 March that "the UK recognizes states, not governments. The interim national council are valid interlocutors, with whom we wish to work closely." And German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle was even more circumspect, saying that wider recognition "will have to wait for consultations held by the EU and the Special Representative of the UN. Before we undertake such political steps, we must of course know who we're dealing with."

Salih Clings To Power

Yemeni President 'Ali 'Abd Allah Salih waited for a day before rejecting the "roadmap for his departure" before the year is out offered by his opponents on 2 March, letting it be known through a spokesman on 4 March that "he would accept the opposition's plan, including the article about a smooth transition of power, but it needs to be implemented at the end of the president's term in 2013." He further explained in a statement the next day that "the peaceful and smooth transition of power is not carried out through chaos but through the will of the people." Since the swift, if not immediate, departure of Mr Salih is the essence of the protesters' demands, it was hardly surprising that this did not go down well with the opposition, whose spokesman said on 7 March that "recent events have proven that the regime is incapable of answering the demands of the people, and for that reason it needs to go" and warned that "the protesters are studying several options for an escalation." However the next escalation came not from the opposition but from the police, who opened fire on demonstrators in San'a on 8 March, wounding at least 65 people. Two days later Mr Salih offered to draw up a new constitution creating a parliamentary system of government, saying that "firstly we will form a new constitution based on the separation of powers. A referendum on this new constitution will be held before the end of the year." He also said that he hoped his opponents would  join a unity government to put the new political system into effect, but that "I'm already sure that this initiative won't be accepted by the opposition" – and he was right. Once again it was a question of too little too late as far as the opposition was concerned. Or as a spokesman for the demonstrators put it on 10 March, "this initiative is too late. The demands on the street go beyond that and are bigger than that."

Saudi Demonstrations

The Saudis probably overreacted to last week's relatively minor demonstrations by Shi'as in 'Awwamiya and Qatif in the Eastern Province when the Interior Ministry issued a statement on 5 March noting that "the kingdom's regulations totally ban all sorts of demonstrations" and warning that the security forces would use all measures to prevent any attempt to disrupt public order. The next day the authorities wheeled out the heavy artillery of the religious establishment with a statement from the Council of Senior Clerics affirming that "demonstrations are forbidden in this country. The correct way in Shari'a of realizing common interest is by advising…reform and advice should not be via demonstrations and ways that provoke strife and division." The statement added that "the Council warns of deviant ideological and party political connections since this nation is one and will adhere to the ways of the pious ancestors. The kingdom has not and will not allow ideas from the west or the east that take away from this Islamic identity and divide the unity of the whole." This reaction brought the mildest of reproofs from State Department spokesman P J Crowley, who said on 7 March that "the US supports a set of universal rights, including the right to peaceful assembly and to freedom of expression. Those rights must be respected everywhere, including Saudi Arabia." However, this is evidently a sensitive subject as far as the Saudis are concerned, since Foreign Minister Prince Sa'ud al-Faisal, when asked about Mr Crowley's remarks the next day, retorted that "the kingdom absolutely rejects any foreign interference in its internal affairs in any shape or form."

Tunisia Consolidates

More than one and a half months after the Tunisians set the Arab world alight by ousting President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, the authorities in Tunis have been consolidating the revolution and taking preliminary steps towards a transition to an as yet uncertain future. As far as concerns the past, the Interior Ministry announced  on 7 March that the Ben Ali regime's political police and state security forces had been disbanded, and two days later a court formally dissolved the ousted president's political party, the Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD). Also on 7 March Prime Minister Beji Caid Sebsi, who was appointed by President Fouad Mebazza on 27 February after two previous caretaker governments collapsed under pressure from protesters demanding that all members of the ancien regime should be purged, unveiled a new caretaker government of technocrats untainted by any association with the Ben Ali regime. Mr Sebsi was at pains to stress that "this is a temporary government which will be in office for only four and a half months" – ie until the 24 July date Mr Mebazza has set for the election of a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution. Thereafter Tunisia will once more be in uncharted territory, since no-one seems to know what powers the assembly will have or how the country will be run until it has a constitution and holds parliamentary and presidential elections.

No Let-Up In Bahrain

In Bahrain, where large demonstrations have continued at the Pearl roundabout in the capital Manama, Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifah sounded a conciliatory note on 7 March when he said that  "I hope that everyone will be brave, patient and optimistic and motivated to engage actively in the dialogue." The prince acknowledged that "around 70 to 80 percent of the demands are shared by all the people. Everybody wants better services. Everybody wants dignity. Everybody wants to be heard. Everybody wants accountability," but added that "no party should define the scope or purpose of the dialogue before we even start…We have no problem with talking about these issues and discussing them in depth." However, his remarks did not go down well with the leader of the hardline Shi'a opposition group Al Haq, Hasan Mushaimaa, who said the next day that "the monarchy has failed to bring down the revolution by force, and it now aims to coopt its legitimate demands through murky political games." Mr Mushaimaa then raised the stakes by announcing that Al Haq and two other Shi'a parties, Wafa and the Freedom Movement, had formed the "Coalition for a Republic" aimed at "bringing down the existing regime in Bahrain and establishing a democratic republican system" by peaceful means through a decentralized movement of civil disobedience and resistance. The prospect of a democratic republic in Bahrain, which would inevitably be dominated by the Shi'a majority, is not one that is likely to appeal either to the ruling Sunni minority or to the Americans, whose fifth fleet is based on the island.

Elsewhere In The Region

Virtually nowhere in the Arab world (with the apparent exception of Mauritania) is immune to the turmoil in the collective Arab body politic. Oman's Sultan Qabus set some kind of record for cabinet reshuffles - at least during the present crisis - by carrying out his third in a month on 7 March. In Morocco, King Muhammad on 9 March announced the appointment of a committee to work with political parties, trade unions and civil society groups to draw up proposals for constitutional reform by June. According to the king, the reforms will produce an independent judiciary, a freely elected parliament with new powers, a government chosen by parliament, a prime minister from the majority party and greater powers for political parties. And In the UAE some 160 intellectuals, "many of them academics and former members of the Federal National Council (FNC)" – an advisory body with powers that might charitably be described as limited, sent a petition to UAE President Shaikh Khalifa bin Zayid Al Nuhayyan on 9 March calling for "comprehensive reform of the FNC, or parliament, including demands for free elections by all citizens in the  method of universal suffrage" and demanding "reform of legislation governing the work of parliament to include legislative and monitoring authority and…the necessary constitutional amendments to ensure this."

'Allawi Quits Iraqi Government

One political development in the Middle East that had absolutely nothing to do with the Arab spring elsewhere was former Iraqi prime minister Ayad 'Allawi's 3 March announcement that he was abandoning the inclusive coalition government formed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki last December. The reason is simple. Mr 'Allawi, whose Iraqiya slate emerged from parliamentary elections a year ago as the largest single party, was only persuaded to join the government by offering him the chairmanship of a new body to be known as the National Council for Strategic Policies (NCSP) with unspecified but wide-ranging powers. However, in the intervening three months Mr Maliki has done nothing visible to set up the NCSP, which was originally supposed to be created by early December. In the circumstances, it was hardly surprising that an Iraqiya spokeswoman said on 3 March that "we feel there is no seriousness about forming this council and implementing other promises" or that Mr 'Allawi told reporters that "it is true I have said I will not preside over the NCSP and I will not be a member of it. This is because of what happened to circumvent the deal on forming a national partnership in Iraq." His defection may seem relatively a minor development in the context of the momentous events elsewhere in the region, but the removal of the major party supported by Iraq's Sunnis from the coalition government clearly represents a potential problem in the future.

Charles Snow