The winter of Arab discontent continues across North Africa, the Gulf and Iraq. In Libya there appeared to be a stalemate on the ground after forces loyal to Col Qadhafi launched a counterattack against rebel strongholds in the east of the country. In Egypt the proposed amendments to the constitution have been published and the prime minister has resigned. The caretaker Tunisian government is tottering after six ministers resigned. Iraq, too, has been having its "days of rage," although for rather different reasons than elsewhere. The Yemeni opposition has offered President Salih a compromise of sorts. Even Saudi Arabia and Oman are not immune to the unrest sweeping the region.

Military Stalemate In Libya

Libya has once again dominated the headlines, and unlike his Egyptian and Tunisian counterparts, Col Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi is not going gentle into the good night. On 2 March his forces have launched an offensive against rebel held areas in the east of the country which succeeded in capturing the oil export terminal at Marsa al-Brega 800km east of Tripoli only to lose it back to the rebels again on the same day. By the end of the week the pro-Qadhafi forces did not appear to be making any further progress towards Benghazi, but neither were the rebels advancing westward towards Col Qadhafi's stronghold in Tripoli. How long this stalemate might last was anybody's guess. But the passage of time would appear to favor the rebels by giving them the chance to organize themselves and mobilize outside help, whereas Col Qadhafi's support and finances looked likely to hemorrhage the longer the impasse continues.

On the political front, the Libyan leader's international isolation looked total after the UN, US and EU all imposed sanctions on him, his family, and various government officials and state institutions (for details see page 1) – and the US took the lead in calling for Col Qadhafi to step down with a 26 February White House statement saying that "when a leader's only means of staying in power is to use mass violence against his own people, he has lost the legitimacy to rule and needs to do what is right for his country by leaving now." Meanwhile it was announced in Benghazi on 2 March that former justice minister Mustafa 'Abd al-Jalil will head the 30-member National Libyan Council (NLC) that will represent the opposition, and on the same day an NLC spokesman called for foreign air strikes, saying that "we call for specific attacks on strongholds of these mercenaries. The presence of any foreign forces on Libyan soil is strongly opposed. There is a big difference between this and strategic air strikes."  The next day a council spokesman repeated this appeal, saying "we need air strikes to impose a no-fly zone," but the Americans – who are the only people in a position to impose one – made it clear they would only do so with international backing, since, as Defense Secretary Robert Gates put it on 3 March, "a no-fly zone begins with an attack on Libya to destroy the air defenses." On the same day President Obama  equivocated on the question when he said that "I want us to be making our decisions based on what is going to be best for the Libyan people in consultation with the international community," although he reiterated that "Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi has lost the legitimacy to lead and he must leave."

Egyptian Prime Minister Goes

The proposed constitutional changes unveiled on 26 February by the committee of jurists appointed by Egypt's ruling Higher Military Council (HMC) would, inter alia, limit presidents to two four-year terms, make it much easier for candidates to contest presidential elections and limit the duration of a state of emergency to six months, after which it can only be extended with the approval of a referendum. As currently scheduled, these reforms, which have elicited no major objections from opposition groups, will be submitted to a referendum in March, after which a parliamentary election will be held in June and a presidential election some six weeks later. In the meantime the HMC is overseeing a caretaker government whose, head Prime Minister Ahmad Shafiq, resigned on 3 March and was replaced by 'Isam Sharaf, a one-time transport minister less closely associated with the Mubarak era. The resignation of Mr Sharaf, who was appointed by Mr Mubarak in the dying days of his rule on 29 January, was widely seen as an attempt to head off further mass protests in Tahrir square, where activists are keeping a close watch on both the HMC and the old guard of the Mubarak regime.

Six Ministers Resign In Tunis

Six weeks after Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali ignited the internet intifada by fleeing to Saudi Arabia, Tunisia's caretaker government was brought close to collapse by a series of resignations which raised doubts about the county's progress towards democratization. On 27 February Prime Minister Muhammad Ghannouchi, who was widely seen as tainted by his association with the Ben Ali regime, resigned and was replaced by Beji Caid Sebsi, a former foreign minister under independent Tunisia's first president Habib Bourguiba. The last two ministers left over from the Ben Ali cabinet stepped down the next day. And three more ministers from opposition parties followed suit on 1 March. On the same day the Islamist party Ennahda, which was banned for more than 20 years when Mr Ben Ali was in power, was formally legalized, and its leader, Rachid Ghannouchi, promptly staked out a studiously moderate position. Asked whether the party would join an interim government he replied "it's possible…when conditions that require our participation emerge, we will join. What's important is assuming a position that contributes to democratization." Mr Ghannouchi also sought to allay secularist concerns by pointing to Turkey as a model, saying that "Turkey's experience is a serious inspiration for the Arab world, especially in how to reconcile Islam and modernity. Turkey serves as an example with its human rights, democracy, freedoms and economic development."

Days Of Rage In Iraq

Iraq, too, is having its "days of rage," although the rage is directed more at corruption and the lack of infrastructure and jobs than at political repression, and on 25 February there were demonstrations across the country from Kirkuk in the north to Basra in the south. Perhaps even more tellingly, the next day Iraq's senior and most influential Shi'a cleric, Grand Ayatollah 'Ali al-Sistani, added his voice to those of the protesters with a statement saying that the Shi'a religious leadership "which has always stressed to officials to work on people's legitimate demands, is warning them not to insist on sticking to current policies in running the state." That was enough to galvanize Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who reacted on 27 February by somewhat theatrically setting a deadline of 100 days for officials to respond to the demands of the protesters, telling the cabinet that "we will set 100 days to decide the success or failure of the ministry or the province…I find myself obliged to ask for a change in implemented laws, ministers, deputies, governors, managers and inspectors if it is proved they are not capable of responding to the call of duty and to people's demands."  However, on 28 February he was at pains to clarify that this did not mean that he had set a deadline for solving the county's problems. "The issue of the 100 day plan is a rule adopted in countries round the world and is a test," he told a press conference. "It shows the competence of the minister and whether he can put the ministry on the right course or not. It is not a process of implementing the demands within 100 days."

Yemeni Opposition Offers Salih A Road Map

In Yemen, President 'Ali 'Abd Allah Salih responded to continuing protests demanding his immediate departure by offering to form a unity government with the opposition on 28 February. According to a government source Mr Salih told a meeting of religious leaders that "I am ready to offer a national unity government within hours and I am asking the opposition to name its representatives in the government." This offer was immediately rejected by the opposition coalition, the Joint Meeting Party, whose spokesman said that "the opposition decided to stand with the people's demand for the fall of the regime and there is no going back from that."  Mr Salih's position was further undermined on 1 March when a leading cleric who had previously supported his campaign to remain in power until his term ends in 2013, 'Abd al-Majid al-Zindani, joined the opposition in San'a, declaring that that Mr Salih "came to power by force and stayed in power by force, and the only way to get rid of him is through the force of the people…there is no legitimacy to a ruler whose people do not want him." (He also had the dubious distinction of being the first participant in the internet intifada to state overtly that "an Islamic state is coming.")  Mr Salih was clearly rattled by these developments, since he sounded almost like Col Qadhafi on 1 March when he blamed the unrest on foreigners and lashed out at the US and Israel, claiming that "from Tunis to the sultanate of Oman, the protests are managed by Tel Aviv and under the supervision of Washington." Nonetheless the opposition displayed a certain flexibility on 2 March by offering the president – in the words of spokesman Muhammad al-Sabri – "a road map for departure within a time frame of a month or two, or six months." The map covers amending the constitution, rewriting election laws, removing Mr Salih's relatives from leadership positions in the army and the security forces and guaranteeing the right of peaceful protest. Mr Sabri emphasized that "as for the people's demand for the departure of the regime,  there is no going back on that,"  but  even  if  Mr

Salih accepts the road map, that is unlikely to satisfy the young firebrands on the streets, one of whom was quoted as saying "the agreement bypasses the youth revolution and is not acceptable."

Stirrings In Saudi Arabia

Even Saudi Arabia was not entirely immune to the unrest sweeping the region, although the symptoms were characteristically muted. A Shi'a cleric, Tawfiq al-Amir, was arrested by security forces on 27 February after he preached a sermon on 25 February calling for a constitutional monarchy and an end to corruption and discrimination. Also on 27 February some 100 Saudi intellectuals, activists and university professors published an open letter urging King 'Abd Allah to carry out political reforms giving citizens a greater say in government and calling for "a rule of law to which all, government officials and citizens, would be subjected." Saudi activists have reportedly set up Facebook pages calling for a Saudi "day of rage" on 11 and 20 March to demand an elected ruler, greater freedom for women and the release of political prisoners.  And the release of prisoners arrested and detained for security reasons was also the demand of small demonstrations on 3 March by Shi'as in the Eastern Province  towns of 'Awwamiya and Qatif.

Demonstrations In Oman

The unrest has also spread to one of the more benevolent autocracies in the Gulf, Oman, where protests demanding political reforms which began on Salalah on 25 February spread north to the industrial city of Sohar by 27 February, where clashes with the police resulted in six deaths. Oman's ruler, Sultan Qabus bin Sa'id, responded with the traditional cabinet reshuffle on 26 February and the next day the government pledged to create 50,000 additional government jobs, to hand out unemployment benefits of $390 a month to job seekers and to study the possibility of widening the powers of the Shura Council, the elected body which has a purely advisory role.The Americans, meanwhile, according to State Department spokesman P J Crowley on 28 February, "have been in touch with the government and encouraged restraint and to resolve differences through dialogue."

Charles Snow