On 9 July South Sudan was scheduled to become an independent country, possibly triggering a shut-down of most oil production and exports both sides of the border. War also looked a possibility at MEES press time. The South has openly threatened the North’s oil revenue by talking about building a pipeline to Kenya, and Juba has also said it will split up and auction off Total’s giant block in the South if the French major does not develop it. President 'Umar al-Bashir’s position looks increasingly insecure in the North.